Ann: Kathleen Valley Funding Package, page-659

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8horse

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01/02/24

13:39

Post #: 72184564
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Originally posted by Anteviariel ↑

Hi@Thisisseriousmum, i currently do not have an explicit view of what the new funding will be atm - but i'm estimating we require at least $330m fresh funding (refer table below my estimate and breakdown of this amount) based on the info provided at the investor briefing held on the 22nd of Jan 2024.

The question is; whether the WoodMac pricing forecast will provide assurance to the syndicate financiers that LTR is able to service the $330m + $300m Ford facility = $630m.

There were 3 ratios the syndicate financiers used to evaluate and stress test LTR's capability to service the debt based on pricing forecast - and at least 1 or 2 of them failed under the new WoodMac pricing forecast:

1. Debt Service Coverage Ratio
2. Loan Life Coverage Ratio
3. Reserve Tail Ratio

Tony did mentioned there was an optionality to use an alternative pricing forecast or a basket of pricing but we'll have to wait and see. However, the other option which i'm not in favour of is another capital raise given where the SP is at currently.

Not upgrading to a 4mtpa at this time is not an issue at this time as it can be done when SC6.0 pricing (eventually) turn; this can be 6 months later or even 2 years later and if pricing allows; this can be funded from sales generated cash instead of a loan or capital raise.

I will wait for the Company to provide the funding update before making changes to my forecast model as there may also be some sort of relief to be provided by either the state and/or federal government.

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Less: additional cash raised via SPP, $13.8m

LTR Price at posting: 99.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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