Hey@ChocolateTeapot, indeed I have revised my spreadsheet model...

Hey@ChocolateTeapot, indeed I have revised my spreadsheet model - for those that are interested LTR's KV 13 Yr Outlook - as always, feel free to download a copy and make your own assumptions. @Goldilocks, appreciate going through it in details and picking up the little things.

There are a few new addition/assumptions I've made:

1. The obvious one; increased in Capex to $895m (this I understood excludes Corporate, Working Capital and buffer); the estimated shortfall is at least $400m (could be more or less depending on what the revised working capital requirement, etc will be) - it's may seem significant at first; but if you consider the 2nd point below - this will likely be not the case and perhaps make it even more attractive.






2. Included 2024 FY for the DSO; as many have already pointed out - this is a material change to the bottom line pre-production; the DSO is not part of DFS reserves which would otherwise be just waste rock; cost/t at this point is unknown - we'll wait for future announcement to get a better grasp on the cost. However, if you look solely at the Gross Revenue the DSO could potential provide (see below; I took a mid-point between 850 Kt and 1200 Kt) - it could easily cover or pay off the additional funding we require - the best outcome (unlikely IMO) would be to fast-track DSO sales (incl. prepayment at discounted price/t) well before requiring the cash to cover the anticipated shortfall at the backend of this year.




3. Increased production capacity due to upgrade to 3 Mtpa for the first five year (previously 2.5 Mtpa) and allowing for a minor output loss; there is no doubt this will affect the EPS as well as the increased in Dividend/share, I believe I am being conservative in my numbers with reference to PLS. (I hold).



4. At this point, I did not factor in a capital raise for the shortfall but as an additional loan (my preference) - but this can easily be paid off from the DSO revenue - it makes capital raise an un-attractive option.

5. Tony had already a number of times indicated; there is a possibility of going for a mid-stream product instead of LHM; which we will likely get a confirmation before end of this year - hence, there may be significant changes 2029 onwards.