Ann: KBC: Metgasco Ltd Loan, page-41

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boysy1

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29/11/23

07:07

Post #: 71158069
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Originally posted by hanabi ↑

Mitchdon: MEL is moving quickly towards breakeven and potentially some profitability.

How does that work? We currently have two wells flowing at rates that will probably never be seen again (given their well-known exponential-like decline rates), and as you suggest, MEL is probably loss-making at the moment. So if MEL is loss-making now, and flow rates will be much reduced in a few months time, how can we not be even more loss-making in the future? Thanks to management's incompetence (and KBC playing hard-ball) we surely now have not enough funding to remediate the two dud wells. I doubt a cap raise will be successful. Very few investors will want to risk funding well refurbishment because a failure of such will mean admin for MEL, because MEL is, and will continue to be, loss-making without successful well remediation. But if MEL doesn't cap raise then it is almost certainly admin.

I agree with hombre: sell up and return remaining capital to shareholders. This dog is on its last legs.

MTV: Otherwise a simple SPP - say 1 for 3 at 7c

You mean 0.7 cents, yes? When we are already at 0.8 cents? You're dreaming; I'd say even at 0.5 cents per share a raise would most likely fail and leave MEL underfunded; there is simply too much risk of VA now, especially given the incompetence of management.

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Can someone correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t Mel profitable from Odin alone at the moment ?

5mmcfd * 80% = 4mmcfd * 25 = 1mmcf day net to Mel

At pricing of $12 mcfd this would suggest. MEL is netting $12k day

assuming 75% field uptime over a 91 day quarter that’s $820k a quarter with total costs last quarter of $650k - this assumes no contribution from vali

what am I missing ?

MEL Price at posting: 0.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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