Another risk that many of us have been watching closely ever since interest rates began to move is market risk. There's no let up in the media about economic and market risk from current high rates but the chart of the US S&P500 is showing new highs again since the bear market low of October 2022. This rebound is now over seven months long and is not looking anything like a dead cat bounce. It has recovered half of its bear market fall despite the negative news, despite the highest rates in years and ongoing warnings of recession. Direction is clearly still up.
Can it keep going? Check out the German DAX index chart further below before answering no.
Two year chart S&P500.
Some argue that the US market is not a reliable indicator because it is heavyweight with tech majors.
The German market (below) doesn't have those tech majors and Germany very recently entered recession. So why is it performing even better than the US, why is it at a two year high and more importantly, why has it recovered all of its bear market losses just after entering recession and with much higher interest rates than the near zero rates two years ago? That goes against everything we hear in the media!
I certainly can't answer that but I do know that inflation can boost earnings, even with lower volume of sales if higher sales prices more than offset lower volumes. I.e. markets are an inflation hedge, especially over the long term despite the short term volatility. Of course it's much more complex than that but it does show why highly liquid index charts are a better guide on market direction than media headlines and expert commentary. Experts (including our reserve bank) told us two years ago that interest rates will be very low for years. They told us the coronavirus would collapse house prices but they rallied to much higher levels instead. They also told us that house prices would collapse by around 30% if rates got to around where they are now. House prices fell by a fraction of that, next to nothing in SA and are now turning up nationwide. Why didn't the experts factor in the housing shortage to their forecasts? It was no secret.
This is the German DAX index over two years. Higher than where it was two years ago prior to the bear market.
MNB is expecting to be be in production near the end of this year. As the market begins to price that in, that will be more important to the medium to long term sp than our perceptions of economic and market risk.
The three year chart below shows very solid gains for medium to long term investors despite a bear market. It also shows a very strong bottom signal for the current correction with last weeks candle. That's by far the strongest reversal signal in the three years suggesting this correction may have been way overdone. I'm hoping it also suggests a very strong rally ahead. Time will tell on that point.
This is a volatile stock but if we can stomach the volatility without selling near the lows, the near term phosphate production and development work on the green ammonia project should lead to strong gains just ahead. That opinion is based on the phosphate DFS after tax, base case NPV being around three times the current mc. When that project nears production later this year, not only should the mc begin to approach that base case NPV but the market should begin to believe that the next step - the larger green ammonia project, will be a reality. If or when the market believes in that project, then the mc should go well beyond the 34c (fully diluted) needed to get the mc up to that NPV. That's why I think strong gains are just ahead of us, as over the next 6-12months production ramps up and the green ammonia PFS reveals the value of the green ammonia project. There is little doubt IMO, after seeing the tech study results, that the green ammonia NPV will be multiples of the phosphate NPV.
While some investors here might not believe in the green ammonia project just yet, major industry and finance players seem to see it differently. The following is from the quarter report under the green ammonia section at the top of page 4.
"The Company has begun offtake and financing discussions with high-quality project partners and funding providers."
News we could expect to see over the next 6 months won't be limited to the phosphate construction and commissioning.
This was also from the quarter report under the green ammonia project;
"Negotiations to be finalised to secure plant site for the Capanda Green Ammonia Project." and;
"Market feasibility study to be undertaken on opportunities not only in Angola, but to take advantage of the recently announced Lobito Corridor rail link (Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia)."
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