guys, I am out of KNL... and by that I mean I AM OUT OF KNL ON...

guys, I am out of KNL...

and by that I mean I AM OUT OF KNL ON HC... my last post until there is a substantial change in the world that KNL operates in - that mean banking news / finance approval / Tanzanian govt news / any new project related news etc etc...

I appreciate all the negative talk and with the sp reeling @ 13c I can safely say that the negatives outweigh the positives IF you look at the sp as the ONLY indicator...

I am not happy with the sp and no one in his/her right mind will be happy too.... but I just did a proper SWOT analysis on KNL and I think I want to stop looking at it for the next few months... if I keep reading the posts here, I may do something stupid and sell out or reduce my holding or something... I want to be an ostrich with my head under the sand and think all is ok BECAUSE my analysis told me that IF sp was not the only criteria then we are not in a bad position...

BIGGEST SUPPORT for me came from the fact the KfW is financing a deal in Tanzania worth a few hundred million $$$ - this same KfW wants to negotiate a clause with the Tanzanian govt regarding the clarification of how the KNL management can operate their banking with money be easily repatriated outside of Tanzania - I think this is the BIGGEST sticking point in the deal being signed...

Tanzania WILL respect this clause of KfW and sign off and the KfW guarantee will kick in... that to me is matter of getting all the required people in a room and negotiating this particular clause... I feel if KfW walk out of the dealing room with a smile on their face then we can even hope to see the return of someone like Nedbank (or Nedbank themselves) stumping up another slmaller part of the loan and then EFIC will put their hands in their pockets and bring out a smaller cheque...

$50-80 million for 2-3 financiers is NOT a big deal when there is a buyer ready for the goods and there is a possibility of ecograf getting more traction....

that leaves me wondering - WILL THE SP THEN BE @ 13c MARK?

DEFINITELY NO !!!!! It could be at least some % over that mark - I feel the fact that CFS also going for their part in the recent CR means the big boys are not worried... the 1.1m seller probably is a lone wolf and IF he gets taken out there could be no big seller on the line (but that will be known ONLY after it is off the sell side)...

so based on this simple logic, I feel I WILL HAVE TO BE A BIT MORE PATIENT and wait for Tanzania and KfW to iron out the details... finance will follow in due course after that and the sp will take care of itself ...

IF we were in the drilling or resource modelling phase now, I would have sold a long time ago... we are way past that and we need ONE GOOD LUCK story now - not an impossible task IMO....

ALSO - the Tanzanian govt seems to be going ETHICAL imo - that cannot be a bad thing for the very long term, right? IF so, then there is one more case for sticking around - the BIGGEST problem with Africa has been corruption (and infrastructure)... if corruption can be ruled out, we are laughing all the way to the bank (which Bank if you may ask then it is KfW )

so hope to see you all AFTER some change in the scenery here... until then do your own analysis and see you "soon"....