Blade, an added consideration is that the market darling for funds, being SYR, struggled and was ultimately unsuccessful in achieving normal funding finance. Kudos to their management team for raising a lot of cash at the CR (x2), but it doesn't hide the fact that they (SYR) initially said they were achieving funding (finance) and ended up having to get equity.
In MacBank's previous analysis on SYR, they put KNL second. You can bet that a bunch of the funds would have seen that, and by not being very cluey on graphite, they have taken the entirely reasonable view that if SYR couldn't get finance when it's got the world's largest graphite resource (allegedly), then neither could anyone else, including us. So there are a bunch of funds who are likely waiting on the sidelines for a massive CR, and as I said, that's an entirely reasonable view for them to take if they've only done a cursory look at the graphite space and compared to SYR.
Heeman, the stock will likely move on finance announcement and in the immediate aftermath, because a positive finance announcement is not yet priced in. Many people don't believe the finance will happen, so when the finance announcement comes out, if it's at a good rate (which it should be), if it's at a good LVR (which it should be, especially by having senior and junior debt), and if the equity raise is appropriate (which it will be with a good LVR, meaning the equity portion is less), and the German Govt guarantee is confirmed (remember, it's only in-principle at this stage), at that point a lot of people will realise it's a real project (many investors don't consider projects to be real until finance is approved). And at that point, those instos waiting for a SYR style CR will realise that the CR is going to be much, much smaller. And that will drive up the price of the sp, or the CR premium, or a combination of both. But right now, investors and funds can't work out a new normal for the sp because no-one knows for sure what the finance is going to look like. Sure, we've got a good idea ($40m from KfW, $30m from Nedbank, German Govt guarantee, rate for senior below housing rate), but remember that we are still in spec share territory, which is fine for us, but not fine for many larger funds/investors.
The finance announcement, when it comes, will have an extremely positive impact on the sp. For funds, it will highlight a vast difference in profit terms between a mainly debt funded mine (ours) and a 100% equity funded mine (SYR), and the ROE and the 100% de-risked forward production will be calling funds/investors like a birdsong calling out to it's mate.
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