It's hard to know what value to place on Admiral Bay due to it's...

It's hard to know what value to place on Admiral Bay due to it's depth.

S32 are in the process of buying out Arizona Mining which holds the Hermosa Project. The project currently contains around 104mt @ 10% zinc equivalent, at a depth of up to 630m.
Including the 17% already held by S32, Arizona Mining is now valued at around aud$2.1b

The project has a measured, indicated and inferred resource, whereas AB is only inferred and is around 170mt @ 7% zinc and much deeper.

So is AB and the Napier projects worth the $32.5m ($24.5m in cash & shares at listing and $8m cash on hitting sp milestones) MCT is going to be paid?

If the answer is yes then the IPO should be successful.

Will AB ever be a viable mine at 1300m deep and grading 7% zinc equivalent?

I guess that's the main question investors need answered. I personally have no idea.

AB has size on its side, so will be a long life mine should it ever be built.
It has a good location with low sovereign risk, so if it is viable there is at least the comfort of knowing it won't be taken away from the company after they spend a fortune on it.

It seems no one was interested in the project to the point of putting up cash over the last year or two, despite MCT spruiking it hard.

Maybe the time factor of getting a project of this size and depth to market is just far too risky for any established company to undertake, whereas a group of likeminded speculative investors may see a chance through an IPO to spread the risk. Each only need risk as much as they are comfortable with, for an opportunity of a large payday down the road if they can prove the project viable.

MCT purchased AB for around $1m plus future milestone payments of $6m. It could be argued that MCT management have done well even if we only get $4.5m cash and 25m shares @ .80 each. The Napier projects have cost very little to MCT and the $1.5m still owing will be paid by KML, so throwing them into the mix is neither here or there.

I'm not impressed with the lack of drilling undertaken on the battery metals projects, but offloading AB for a sizeable profit will make up for a lot of other disappointments, if it sets the company up to acquire more ground and explore aggressively.

Whether I hang around to see how they fare is another matter. Taking a profit while its there is always tempting, and the lack of progress in the 2 years I've held MCT makes it seem even more appealing if it should happen.

Management have been lacklustre at best imo, but a good result from the KML listing will redeem them in the eyes of the market imo. That is why I see the current sp as cheap, though only if the KML IPO comes off.

Risk V Reward. My bet is on KML listing, though it may not hit the October timeline. Could easily take another couple of months to raise the $31m imo. That's ok by me, as long as it happens.