RED 2.70% 36.0¢ red 5 limited

I think the speculation that RED's management is setting up the...

  1. 2,337 Posts.
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    I think the speculation that RED's management is setting up the company for a cheap takeover is sheer nonsense.
    Ever since RED's management uncovered KOTH's hitherto unknown enormous extent of KOTH ore endowment, by a mix of serendipity (after the geological team suggested some horizontal drilling from UG) and bold management.
    The rush to get a big mill built even before the BFS was finalised has been associated with some missteps and miscalculations, BUT, it got the mill built on a fixed price contracts, 50 - 100% cheaper than now ! (serendipity or inspired management ?)
    So here we are in late 2022 with Leonora's biggest new mill, hungry for feedstock to achieve its built-in design expansion capacity, at lowest quartile processing cost, such that it would be profitable at lower POG than current for decades.
    Its been the MD's vision and drive that been at the heart of RED's ambitious long term plans to be a tier 2 gold miner.
    Yes, there was a strong belief that Red's assets had long term potential for organic growth - check previous presentations - "open and depth and in all directions" is proclaimed repeatedly and without change or qualification .... this hasn't changed.
    Yes, MW has repeatedly said that KOTH's mill had the ability to expand to take additional ore sources making KOTH the natural Leonora milling solution for deposits lacking a mill or for companies with insufficient processing capacity for their best ore.
    Yes, the last few presentations have conceded that talks about possible M&A had been initiated .... by other parties especially the desperate SBM.
    We can see that the release of that rumour didn't save the SBM MD, whose graciously steeped down to 'pursue other opportunities'.
    Once the M&A story took flight, RED's management was obviously very keen for RED to be part of the discussion.
    RED's management is very very aware that some critics blame them for part of the SP value discount and are desperate to prove them wrong.
    Facilitating a low ball TO or M&A would confirm critics and not be in the interest of management (or SH's) in the short or long term.
    MW is very bullish and ambitious about RED's prospects. Changing the jockey with the finishing line in site would achieve nothing except, giving new jockey his easiest ever big win.
    The whole gold sector remains in bear territory ... look around ... only CMM is defying gravity.
    IF IF IF there's M&A, RED wont be the junior party - a merger of near equals like Genesis maybe but SBM is drowning and will drown it's rescue-er.
    This latest announcement has signalled that full commission is imminent and with that, some SP rerate will surely occur.
    I don't expect KOTH's AISC to be announced till the half yearly report is published. These can be expected to gradually improve over several quarters .... as routinely occurs in such situations.
    Please stop with the angry wild speculations and accept that RED is about to emerge from its purgatory and will become a very long life producer.
    KOTH is a very valuable, strategic asset - hence the well based idea of its M&A appeal. The BOD will not recommend a low ball TO !!!
    Hostile TO's are very difficult, protracted and expensive for the raider .... hang tough ... full commissioning by Xmas probable, and AISC late Jan 23.
    Last edited by MIStragic: 21/11/22
 
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