RED 2.44% 42.0¢ red 5 limited

Ann: King of the Hills set for stronger March Quarter, page-60

  1. 2,318 Posts.
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    Good posts, Joe & Red. While the initial FFS was for a 4.1mtpa and an AISC of A$2000, management was being ultra conservative so as to get the banking syndicate on board. The BS demanded an extensive due diligence, which dragged on over the 2020 Xmas period into the NY during which time the SP got shredded (unfairly).
    But right from the outset management believed that the ore body was massive and would support a much higher production rate and hence the BFS included a 6mtpa(+) crusher and other design features, which could facilitate relatively low cost expansion to 7mtpa+. If additional long term ore became available, then a second crusher would be necessary, to expand to 10mtpa, but much cheaper than a new plant.
    Talk about black swans - first COVID and its unintended consequences such as labor shortages, then the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulting in further cost increases, supply issues and a marked increase in interest rates and a credit squeeze by the blood sucker banks.
    The initial bank loan interest of 8% (much derided by RED critics) doesn't look so bad now, and the recent extra hedging doesn't look so shoddy.
    The management has maintained guidance for 5.5mtpa run rate by July, but will be criticised by armchair 'know nothings' if its 'only' 5 mtpa.
    The safest way through RED's mine field is full steam ahead to KOTH plant design, to achieve maximum profitability in the current climate ... IMHO.
 
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