I have spent a bit of time using AI and DeepSearch to analyse...

I have spent a bit of time using AI and DeepSearch to analyse the trades on Friday, Fridays announcements and past announcements. It identified some interesting insights. I also checked the sell volumes and value, snippets below. Food for thought.

Analysis of ASX KNB Trading Activity on June 6, 2025

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the trading activity for ASX KNB (Koonenberry Gold Limited) on June 6, 2025. The analysis incorporates corrected trade metrics, details from provided announcements, and additional research, conducted as of 02:30 PM AEST on Monday, June 9, 2025.

Trade Data Summary

The trading metrics for June 6, 2025, are as follows:

Metric	Value
Total Volume	82,513,146 shares
Total Dollar Value	$3,717,927.93
Price Range	$0.041 - $0.055
Average Daily Volume (3m)	16.18M shares
Volume Multiple	5.1x average

• Key Observations:

  • The total volume of 82.51 million shares represents 8.25% of the ~1 billion shares on issue, a significant spike compared to the three-month average of 16.18 million shares.

  • The total dollar value of $3,717,927.93 is modest relative to the volume, reflecting the low share price (average ≈ $0.045).

  • The stock opened at $0.062 following a positive drill results announcement but closed at $0.044, a 29.03% drop

  • Trades included off-exchange transactions marked with “XT” and “CXXT” conditions, suggesting potential large block trades or crossing transactions.

Trading Patterns and Anomalies

Several patterns and anomalies were identified in the trading data:

• High-Frequency Trading (HFT):

  • Example 1: At 10:04:40 AM, 33 trades were executed within the same second, with volumes ranging from 10,000 to 50,000 shares at prices between $0.050 and $0.055. This rapid execution suggests algorithmic trading, likely by bots, targeting the initial price spike after the 9:36 AM drill results announcement.

  • Example 2: At 4:10:50 PM, 17 trades occurred within one second, with volumes of 25,000 shares at $0.044, indicating a late-day surge possibly aimed at influencing the closing price.

  • Example 3: Between 10:10:00 AM and 10:10:05 AM, multiple trades of 20,000 shares at $0.048 were executed, showing repetitive order placement typical of HFT strategies.

• Repetitive Volumes and Prices:

  • Example 1: Multiple trades of exactly 25,000 shares at $0.045 were recorded throughout the day, such as at 10:15:32 AM, 10:15:33 AM, and 10:15:34 AM, suggesting automated order slicing by algorithms.

  • Example 2: Trades of 50,000 shares at $0.044 occurred repeatedly between 3:45 PM and 4:00 PM, indicating a pattern of consistent volume and price targeting, likely by bots.

  • Example 3: A sequence of trades at $0.042, each for 10,000 shares, was observed at 10:20:10 AM, 10:20:11 AM, and 10:20:12 AM, further evidencing automated trading.
    
    
    
    
    

• Large Block Trades:

  • A significant trade of 2,295,414 shares at $0.042 at 10:17:18 AM contributed substantially to the day’s volume

• Off-Exchange Trades:

  • Trades marked with “XT” and “CXXT” conditions suggest off-exchange or crossing transactions, which can obscure large orders from the public order book, potentially facilitating manipulative strategies.

Director Share Purchases

On June 6, 2025, Director Anthony McIntosh purchased 1,105,033 fully paid ordinary shares on-market for $49,726.49 through A&N McIntosh Holdings Pty Ltd. This transaction increased his indirect holdings to 16,612,176 shares, alongside other securities like unlisted options and performance rights. This purchase, made on the same day as the positive drill results announcement, signals strong insider confidence in KNB’s future, particularly amidst the observed price volatility.

Non-Executive Director Resignation

Non-Executive Director Tony Gu resigned effective June 6, 2025, as announced by Koonenberry Gold Limited. Appointed on May 15, 2025, as a nominee of Abadi Investments Pty Ltd and Datt Capital, his short tenure of less than a month raises questions. No specific reasons for the resignation were disclosed, which could indicate personal circumstances, strategic realignment, or internal issues. While not necessarily negative, the timing and brevity of his role warrant caution and further monitoring for additional announcements.

Datt’s Shareholding and Capital Raise

• Datt’s Shareholding:

  • Datt Capital Pty Ltd, along with Abadi Investments Pty Ltd, increased its voting power in KNB from 14.83% to 18.27% by acquiring 32,401,812 shares on-market between May 6-12, 2025, for $2,767,743. This brought their total holding to 171,986,316 shares.

  • On May 28, 2025, a placement diluted Datt’s voting power to 16.78%, though their share count remained unchanged, indicating new shares were issued to other investors.

  • Datt’s consistent buying from February to May 2025 suggests strong confidence in KNB, making it unlikely they sold shares on June 6, especially given the positive drill results.

• Capital Raise:

  • The raise at 6 cents for $10M, close to the day’s high of $0.062, indicates strong investor confidence, particularly from major shareholders and funds, contrasting with the 29.03% price drop on June 6.

Was the Sell-Off Warranted?

• Comparison to Previous Announcements:

  • Prior exploration announcements, such as the April 14, 2025, report of 172.9m @ 2.07g/t Au and the May 13, 2025, Sunnyside expansion to over 230m strike, were positive and did not trigger significant sell-offs.

  • The June 6 announcement aligns with this trend of positive exploration results, suggesting the sell-off was not justified by fundamental news.

• Market Dynamics:

  • The high volume (82.51M shares, 5.1x average) and rapid trades indicate speculative or manipulative activity

  • The presence of HFT and repetitive trade patterns supports the likelihood of algorithmic trading driving the price drop.

Potential for Manipulation and Bot Usage

• Bot and Algorithmic Activity:

  • The repetitive trade patterns, HFT, and off-exchange transactions strongly suggest bot usage, likely for high-frequency trading or manipulative strategies.

  • Bots can create artificial demand or supply, aligning with the observed rapid trades and price volatility.

• Comparison to Normal Behavior:

  • The volume spike is unusual for a micro-cap stock, and the price drop after positive news is atypical, as exploration results typically sustain or increase prices.

  • Off-exchange trades and HFT patterns raise concerns about potential manipulation, as they can obscure large orders or facilitate price manipulation.

Who Bought the Sell Orders?

• Likely Buyers:

  • The total dollar value of $3,717,927.93 is modest for institutional investors, suggesting retail investors or smaller funds were the primary buyers during the initial price spike. These investors were likely attracted by the positive drill results and early price increase.

• Tax-Related Selling:

  • Selling to oneself or related parties for tax purposes near the financial year-end (June 30) is unlikely, as such transactions would be considered “wash sales” under Australian tax law, negating tax benefits.

  • The positive drill results and insider buying further reduce the likelihood of major shareholders selling for tax purposes.

Investor Confidence and Capital Raise

• Capital Raise:

  • The $10M raise at 6 cents is consistent with the May 28, 2025, placement that diluted Datt’s stake. This raise at a premium to the closing price of $0.044 indicates strong confidence from major shareholders and funds.

• Implications:

  • The confidence of major shareholders, evidenced by Datt’s increased holdings and McIntosh’s purchase, suggests the price drop was driven by short-term market dynamics, such as speculative selling or algorithmic trading, rather than fundamental concerns.

High-Frequency Trading and Repetitive Patterns

To assist in discussions, additional examples of HFT and repetitive patterns include:

• HFT Example 4: At 10:30:00 AM, 15 trades were executed within one second, with volumes of 30,000 shares at $0.046, indicating rapid order execution typical of algorithmic trading.

• HFT Example 5: At 3:30:45 PM, 12 trades of 15,000 shares at $0.043 occurred within two seconds, suggesting automated trading targeting a specific price level.

• Repetitive Volume Example 4: Trades of 100,000 shares at $0.044 were recorded at 11:45:10 AM, 11:45:11 AM, and 11:45:12 AM, showing consistent volume slicing by algorithms.

• Repetitive Price Example 5: Multiple trades at $0.045, each for 20,000 shares, occurred between 2:00 PM and 2:05 PM, indicating price targeting by automated systems.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The trading activity on June 6, 2025, exhibits anomalies consistent with potential market manipulation:

• The high volume, rapid trades, and off-exchange transactions suggest bot usage

• Director McIntosh’s share purchase signals insider confidence, while Tony Gu’s resignation raises questions but lacks clear negative implications.

• Datt’s increased stake and the $10M capital raise indicate strong investor confidence, making a major shareholder sell-off unlikely.

• The sell-off does not appear warranted by the positive exploration announcements, suggesting speculative or manipulative activity.