Ann: Kobe Auction Result and March Quarter Sales Update, page-32

Hello Kitle,

First time poster here.
I would like to know learn more and if you don't mind how did you calculate your estimate of fair value using eps.

Your calculations:

4x3Q24 = 3.4M
3xKobe April = 5.6M
eps = 9M/442M = 0.02

I'm assuming you got the PE ratio as 0.115/0.0172 = 6.68 so you just looked at the current PE ratio with future looking earnings as of today after the information of the last auction.

I assume TBV is the tangible book value per share which is $0.12 (probably needs revisiting now that prices dropped)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ASX-ATP/financials-balance-sheet/

How did you calculate FV (fair value) with hurdle rate 10% (or 20%) assuming 4% growth?
I tried assuming that the TBV is there and looking at the present value of the EPS for an investor with


Is this the way you calculate? Could you be slightly more explicit for my learning benefit please?

Thanks.


My assumptions and calculations were as follows
4x3Q24 = 3.4M
4xKobe April = 5.6M
(There were 5 auctions on the previous year, so I'm assuming 4 for a margin of safety given I'm not doing any predictions on the future price of pearls.)

eps = 9M/442M = 0.02
Then I assumed PE ratio of 12 would be fair for the risk of the industry and got 0.02*12=0.24 fair value where this assumes a return of 1/12=8.3%.