My understanding is that at this stage, the most likely scenario...

My understanding is that at this stage, the most likely scenario is a slight net decline of employment contracts in 2020 (winning new ones, losing a few underperformers), but that this will most likely be offset (and very likely surpassed) by DES contract improvements & profitability.

I believe the next quarterly “star ratings” update will provide more clarity on the likely underperformers: https://docs.jobs.gov.au/system/fil...bactive_star_ratings_-_department_website.pdf

To answer your question more succinctly, Mission Providence (Konekt Employment) will almost certainly provide longevity based on the information available and the Govt retender process IMO. It is also very well placed for long term growth (particularly with addition DES contracts) IF they can perform to their potential.

Re MHS, Konekt have a strong, long standing relationship, have performed well, and as incumbents I believe it would be exceptionally improbable to lose the contract. The bigger risk is probably the terms of the new contract.

In any case, a lot of sh1t would have to wrong to justify current price, such is the absurd pricing.

And would anyone really think management were willing to contribute a few $m of personal capital at $0.48 if there was a bleak outlook?