NVA 7.89% 20.5¢ nova minerals limited

Ann: Korbel Gold Project Starter Pit Scoping Study, page-229

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  1. 1,425 Posts.
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    Also anyone know why they did the SS on 1.5Moz, when they have a resource with 8Moz at Korbel, even have 3Moz indicated?

    Theres 1.5Moz already at RPM Inferred....

    So anyway, doing a very rough look at what 8MOz over 15-20 years would look like, the real question is how CAPEX will scale? Working backwards using more conservative numbers from a 40% IRR:

    - 8MOz over 20 years = 400k Oz pa
    - USD1650 Gold Price
    - AISC stays $1120
    - 10% Discount Rate
    - CAPEX 724M (150% of starter)
    = $212M pa
    = NPV10 ~1B
    = IRR 41%

    Which is much more what we all sort of expected. Be good if someone could run some of their own numbers to see if it ends up about the same please!

    So big unknowns are capex and why they didnt do the SS on the full deposit at Korbel... Also RPM might add upside too.

    Anyway, the SP had died today, you are either holding for a while now, or you are out. Good luck to holders. This might hurt now, but drilling is still ongoing and from my above calcs, I think the SS is a little unfair on the overall project economics (which was always going to need to be a bulk tonnage pit!).

    Last thing I want to say, is that based on todays price LITM is worth $75M to NVA. So current SP values Estelle in its entirety at ~$40M

    Compare that to todays SS NPV at AUD500M and you have a 10x upside right now.

    I get people dont trust Chris & management and that this SS didnt meet their expectations, so dont begrudge any selling. But imo there is more to come!
 
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