Here's my take on how I would conservatively value the company, noting that today I sold my small position that I took last month as a bet on the announcement:
Kouri, Burkina Faso
Mostly Inferred Resource = 2 MOz
Resource Shenanigans Factor = 80% (adjustment for extremely optimistic (stupid) resource definition assumptions they seem to have put in just to hit the 2MOz mark. i.e. 1900 USD long term gold price, no dilution factor applied, random tiny pits all over the place.)
Inferred Resource Gold Price = 20 to 40 USD / oz (if it was a more contiguous deposit and all indicated you could go towards the high end of this. Personally I wouldn't though)
Country Risk Modifier = 60% (Burkina Faso is facing a humanitarian crisis. 1 million people internally displaced. Borderline famine in the North. Plus growing terrorism in the North with a history of targeting mining / explorers (but also occasionally impacting other regions. If anyone from Golden Rim was ever caught up in an attack, the share price would tank for a long time).
Low end = 2 MOz * 0.8 * 20 USD / Oz * 0.6 = 19.2 million USD
High end = 2 MOz * 0.8 * 40 USD / Oz * 0.6 = 38.4 million USD
Babonga, Burkina Faso
1 million USD
Kada, Guinea
1 million USD
I don't have a view on the value of this. Could be worthless or could be worth something. I suspect it is simply a pivot strategy for the company if Kouri turns out to be a dud.
Paguanta, Chile
2 million USD
Total
Low end = 19.2+1+1+2 = 23.2 million USD ~= 32 million AUD
High end = 38.4+1+1+2 = 42.4 million USD ~= 60 million AUD
Shares available, with a little dilution = 2 billion
Value per share = 0.016 to 0.03 AUD / share
So from my perspective the drop following the announcement comes from country risk combined with a low grade, fragmented resource defined using questionable assumptions. If it had of been 2.2 MOz from a resource definition using more conservative assumptions (e.g. 1700 USD / oz long-term) then it would have been a much more attractive announcement.
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