Constricted supply, or a supply deficit, will clearly drive...

Constricted supply, or a supply deficit, will clearly drive potash prices up or down. It will also impact the ability and the terms around any capex to set up a project.

However 2 key points are always going to lean in SHPs (and other European potential's) favour.

1. Proximity to Europe - doesn't get much better than being right in the middle, and even BHPs Jansen monster which they can upscale will cost $100 USD/tn to ship into Europe, plus the rail after that. All we would have is rail out directly to the end user.

2. Doesn't matter when the Ukraine war ends - for years to come, the global economy will have deglobalised in some areas in order to adjust for the risk of dependency on countries you can't be quite so dependent on. Food is critical, as is everything that goes into the food industry. Europe will look to identify more stable sources to access these commodities. It would also favour EU because the taxes would stay in the bloc instead of going elsewhere to fund the coffers for countries that might want to start a war......

So... whatever UBS's view today or tomorrow, those points aren't an issue for me. The challenge is getting the boxes ticked and finding funding, in a world where there are competitors who are also looking to come online. But for SHP with the scale of resource it has, that's where I think it can win.

Check out the corporate presentations earlier this year - great stats talking to some of the above