As mentioned before, I've always been a blind punter in the game...

As mentioned before, I've always been a blind punter in the game of share trading, but PET was the first company I bought into because I researched and believed in it. In the past couple of months, especially the last few weeks, we had discussed predatory shorting and all kinds of manipulation, fear from the general retail buyers and the rationale behind the fear, including director selling, lack of announcement of new projects and the fear of Phoslock not meeting targets. My excessive complains here reflected my anxiety as I considered all these options too wondering could I have gotten it so wrong in spite of due diligence. But thanks to the veterans here, Mickem, Dianna, redram and the forever positive kingkev, even SSPPMM for indulging in my whinges, I maintained a somewhat positive view for the long term success of this company. The announcement today, however, sealed that belief.

Remembering 23/May when the trial for Xingyun was announced - shortly after the shares crept from $0.45 to $0.87. Then in early July when that barrier $1 got broken (then went up to $1.50 shortly after) after the Xingyun lake trial was declared a success and the entire catchment area of 371sqkm was awarded to Phoslock for exclusive supply. At $3000/t, the project alone (assuming 2019 application doesn't creep into 2020), the projected generated nearly $10 million revenue for 2019 alone (as per announcement today at current stage, application for Xingyun in 2019 is 3,300 tonnes). Sure, there is a risk that the revenue may creep into 2020, so we'll need a little more patience to earn the $$ but if the $$ is coming anyway, LT holders, as always, are fine.

The announcement today, comparable to the 23/May Xingyun, as being a trial with prospect of a ginormous contract if successful. However, the level of grandeur in this one surpasses Xingyun by nearly 10 times. Lake Dianchi is 10 x size of Xingyun. Dianchi catchment area, at 2,920 sqkm, is 7.9 x larger than Xingyun catchment area of 371 sqkm. On potential alone, in a simplistic inference of 7.9 or 10 multiples of 3,300 tonnes a year at $3,000/ton, we are looking at VERY LARGE, like VERY VERY LARGE numbers. So LARGE that the $200 million pipeline in China and the $50-70million guidance in 2020 might be dwarfed. That's a possible reason why this can be inferred easily as 'additional' to previously announced pipeline.

Nonetheless, I believe there is a limit to the good that Phoslock can do (constrained by weather, capacity etc), but there is no limit to the manipulation scums can do and certainly no limit in the folly brought about by mob behaviour. For that reason, I'm unwilling to change my sentiment to 'buy' (unless you're willing to sit here for at least 3-5 years). In saying that, if you sell, you are definitely a fool in my eyes.