AGO 0.00% 4.5¢ atlas iron limited

Ann: Landmark Deal On Costs - Mining Back On, page-104

  1. 808 Posts.
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    I admire your conviction tomboy, but question the logic.

    "Assets determine the income and valuation" Revenues, costs and profit determine income and market sentiment determines valuation.

    "5 operable mines" What 5 operable mines? Atlas only had Webber, Wodgina and Abydos executed prior to suspension, have only re-opened Abydos and are in the process of re-starting Wodgina. Webber remains on C&M until later in the year if and when it gets going again.

    "it now has reduced costs to $50T" It has a reduced forecast for costs. Actual costs remain to be seen. Big difference when valuing the company.

    "infrastructure, mine, goodwill, expected 5 mine profit ratio, chattels like bulldozers etc then you have a net asset position in the $1B range forget $110M MC right now." Goodwill? in a mining company? in this market? 5 mine profit ratio would require 5 profitable mines. AGO don't own bulldozers. Net asset position of $1B - please support your calculation.

    "The debtholders are finished" Hate to break it to you, debt holders are in the business of getting their money back. I don't know any creditor that actively seeks to return less that the principle.

    "LTHs can buy cheap shares at 8c or so and ramp the SP to 50c again." Yes anyone will be able to buy cheap ~8c shares (traders included) but if you expect AGO to go to 50c then you need to think a deeper on it. $0.5 x 4.5B shares = MC of $2.26B!

    "A lot of holders and instos will miss out on cheap shares and will have to go to buy on market." I doubt it. They are issuing 1B shares in a placement plus they are issuing another 2B SPO shares. They are also going to hold 2B shares in case of a shortfall of the SPO. I think they will have plenty to go around...

    Keep punching away at though.
 
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