I have been warned that the coming days and weeks could be important to us ICG holders if the market reacts badly to Putin's and Jumpin Xi's aggressive posturing or even actions.
I have long held that neither will risk a major war for their current short term gains - however there is no way of knowing what is in the mind of insane despots. Hitler, Mussolini and Tojo taught us that - and within living memory.
The reason I claim there will be no war is that Russia and China are actually very weak. Both are surrounded by potential enemies and rely on the other to 'hold their back' - a very dangerous plan, as Hitler taught Stalin. European Russia is very much confined - with Nato to its west, its major maritime routes (thru the Baltic and The Dardanelles) easily subject to disruption, and Islamic states to the south distrustful. Turkey is a case in point. China is worse off with India just itching to get stuck in and Japan to the north east a committed opponent. While Taiwan is safe the 'First Island Chain' constrains China's maritime movement to the East. (hence their need to control the South China Sea)
Both Russia and China are mainly strong by virtue of the build up in arms, and the accumulation of bullion.
Here is a current list of nations by GDP greater than 1 trillion USD - note that Russia and China are poor by GDP per head of population - this implies a deprived, poorly educated, partly illiterate population who might not support centralist aims - It is said that China spends more on internal policing and secret police than it does on the military. Russia is probably the same. This suggests the current power incumbents would fear being 'voted out by a bullet' at any time, which is a weakness but also the biggest worry for the West, should they decide they have nothing to lose.
In absolute GDP terms Russia is only a little ahead of Australia, and just one tenth of the sum of its major rivals in Europe, which themselves have a larger combined GDP than China. The potential enemies which surround China (India, Japan, S.Korea, Canada and Australia) have a total GDP almost equal to China.
That leaves US with the balance of power, by streets and yards. Both economically and militarily.
If there was war over Ukraine, the Red Army might not fight with the same dedication as when they were defending their homeland in WW2 - while it would be the Ukrainians (some of the famous Cossacks of history) who would have the moral right as defenders. It won't be a push-over Mr Putin, meanwhile the West reserves to right to punish outright aggression by mining your harbours, seizing your maritime vessels, closing your airspace, confiscating your assets, cutting you off from the internet and (horror) dropping your satellites.
And for China - all the above and India will drop your dams on the Yangtze River. (The West has ways of defeating defensive SAM installations, by sending in low cost drones which simulate the electronic signature of their high quality assets)
GL all - if there is any incursion in Ukraine it will be minor, so Putin can save face. China is not ready - it knows it can take decades or centuries till an opportunity presents itself.
So lets think about the up-coming drilling, the drilling contractor (anybody know?) and which is the first target.
Also, we will have to think about selling sometime - as Rick Rule says, 'don't forget to sell'. We need three things, to protect our capital, to go free carried, and to take profit. Just don't be a Lemming.
All IMO - I am often wrong.
ICG Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)