Since my last post things seem to have unfolded pretty much as expected.
A few comments which are just my best guess in an earnest effort to keep a balanced view on this forum gained by this old sailor during more than 70 circumnavigations of the sun.
I am deliberately trying to avoid overly technical commentary in order to focus on the main issues.
My models show that moderate success right across the whole “First NGP1 gas” initiative will be necessary to make even a modest profit for CTP.
Clearly CTP/MAC must completely fill the NGP1 as the first objective and working backwards from the site gate the CTP/MAC joint venture must first focus the available funds on getting the surface facilities operating reliably at the required capacity.
It is no surprise that they will end up needing contingent funds to cover escalation in project scope and (International) purchasing costs and I am not going to be unduly concerned if the 1 Dec start up target slips a bit and let’s face it the ramp up to full production will probably be a bit frustrating.
Don’t worry all this is normal.
I think that the decision to keep the money for the second Mereenie well was a wise one under these circumstances.
Even the best project planning needs constant modification and fine tuning and whilst it is well known that I am by no means satisfied by extent of communication to shareholders I am monitoring the whole thing from a number of perspectives and am not unduly concerned.
As you can see from the last quarterlies the administration budget has been significantly reduced.
CTP is not just one individual, they are a team who have been working together for a long time and without naming names I have confidence in a number of the key members who appear to be doing a pretty good job with the limited funds and time available.
I will be watching the next 3 quarterly reports with a sceptical eye because IMO to gain “Lift-off” after NGP1, CTP will need to be able to cover overheads and pro rata amortisation Etc. of the wells and facilities supplying the NT, GSA’s and contribute a modest profit leaving the NGP net share to generate profits. Let’s just wait and see on this one.
At the last AGM I asked the Chairman weather, with the benefit of hindsight shareholders should have accepted the SOA and as I understood it, put simply, the answer was that we should have. This statement was made in front of the assembled CTP board.
Looking at this as objectively as possible, I take the view that the task ahead of the CTP team is by no means easy and not without risk but it is far too late to panic or chop and change at this late stage.
I think I owe fearless honesty it to those who follow my comments (For what they are worth!) and will have no hesitation in raising any Issues that may emerge.
I a nutshell, we are entering a pretty exciting period.
Here’s hoping we pull it off!
Best regards
OGP
NT Chance of at least 25mm of Rainfall Apr-June
