In my view any success is many many years away. Given their track record of picking failures, building a portfolio of winners seems very distant.
I believe a successful company in this field needs an anchor product, a single successful product that throws off good cash amounts (the money product) and remains successful for a long time. ACR had one of those in Axiron but has nothing even close now. Then you build a lot of other products using the cash flow from the anchor, and hopefully get one that becomes the new anchor as the original faces margin pressure or becomes less relevant.
Since we can’t seem to find an anchor product we have to keep raising money to fund product development. We had heaps of money from Axiron, but first of all they sat on their hands for years, and then they squandered it all taking years developing, which we now see failing. Flop after flop.
Now certainly it’s impossible to get a winner every time. But these guys cant seem to pick anything good. So now we must wait until finally, probably by fluke or accident, they choose to develop a product good enough to provide a decent cash flow. I have zero faith in their product selection.
How many years until this happens?
My investment is lost. I now keep it only because it’s not worth selling. Perhaps something in the pipeline will work and things will turn around. It’s not out of the bounds of possibility. But probability is low.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
