HAW 0.00% 6.0¢ hawthorn resources limited

Ann: LCY: Mt Bevan magnetite joint venture PFS progress (updated), page-16

  1. 338 Posts.
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    Just been crunching some numbers regarding what HAW maybe worth for their 19.6 % share in Mt Bevan.
    Using a valuation on what is in hand at the moment, that being 1,170 Mt @ 34.9 % Fe.
    Which will yield 530 Mt concentrate @ 67.7% Fe.
    * All of the above figures are as quoted by HAW company announcements.

    * All of below is IMHO, as what I think it is worth now, as it stand’s, without any further
    inclusions ie: iron ore, lithium, copper and nickel.

    Lets cut to the chase:
    A) 530 Mt of concentrate x 19.6 % = 103.88 Mt.
    If we put a value of $5 per ton. 5 x 103.88 Mil = $ 519.4 Mil.

    B) The $5 per ton is part of a clear profit, after all capital expenses.
    We could expect clear profit to be let’s say $15 per ton x 103.88 Mt = $1558.2 Mil.

    C) So IMHO I think that a sum of $400 Mil just for our share in
    Mt Bevan is reasonable. That equates to $1.19 per share.

    Now who would be our possible buyer?

    1)Gina would be a strong contender, with our 19.6 %, will give her 70.6 % stake.
    2)LCY (NMDC) They would only offer peanuts, as they have short arms and long pockets.

    Maybe if we think outside the square, a suitable buyer could be?

    3) FMG, Twiggy might be a contender.
    4) BHP,
    5) Clive Palmer, he deals in iron ore.

    All of this is something to think about.
 
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