Those throwing around present valuations of $5 per share are nothing more than rampers. They don't provide any approximate calculations or projections because their valuations have no substance.
To even hint that our holding in Sky Mavis might be worth more than our current market cap is preposterous. This implies that the market is currently valuing TSB at zero. That all the other games, ventures and investments are also worthless. We've all come across companies where the market has mispriced them, but even a ounce of common sense tells us that the blockchain funds would have spotted this type of arbitrage opportunity. Who wouldn't want to get exposure to Sky Mavis at a price where the rest of Animoca is in effect free?
If anybody had been able to generate moderately robust $5 valuations, then it would be reasonable to expect that some other investors would have also arrived at valuations well north of $3 per share (especially those with access to all the financial data). The outcome would be a steady rise in the price on PM well in excess of $1.10 and they'd be new HC accounts created in the hope of fleecing long term holders.
PM is not ideal for all the reasons already mentioned, but it provides us with some visibility of what an admittedly small and constrained market is willing to pay. Investors are not willing to pay anywhere near $5 because Animoca does not warrant a US$4b+ valuation at the present time. Whether we hope or can envisage a pathway for Animoca to become a US$4b company is irrelevant. As things stand, the market has assigned a pre-money valuation of US$1b.
My own view, which I've held since being delisted, is that if you sell on PM, you are accepting that you are selling below fair value. Usually, you would not expect inefficiencies to be more than 20% i.e. If you sell at $1.10, fair value is likely to be closer to $1.32. However, this only applies when both buyers and sellers have access to the same information. As we are all fully aware, this is not the case.
Whether you choose to buy or sell, you are doing so at a significant informational disadvantage (or significant advantage if you have access to privileged information). It will be like this until Animoca begins to operate in the best interests of all shareholders. Animoca has knowingly created this situation, only they can rectify it.
HC is full of up rampers and down rampers. Some are harmless - the dreamers who cling to the hope that their investment will provide them with a lotto winning payday and can only see the positives (they will defend the actions of the company at all costs) or the eternal pessimists that are scarred from disastrous investments, pump and dumps, management false promises and can only see the negatives (and refuse to acknowledge when the company has made progress).
Then there are the other cohort of up rampers and down rampers. These are especially dangerous - they are deceptive, spread misinformation, and seek to exploit the fear and greed of others. They are the one's selling whilst posting about the price going to the moon or buying when posting about the company being worthless. So long as you can identify the rampers, HC can be a great place to share information and ideas, challenge preconceptions and enhance your knowledge. If you find yourself falling prey to the rampers on a repeated basis, then HC can be a very dangerous place.
Those throwing around present valuations of $5 per share are...
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