We all value companies in different ways; it's what makes a market.
I'm unable to generate a robust valuation for Animoca due to all the unknowns.
As my post made clear, I think that if you sell on PM you are not getting fair value. I also believe that PM acts as a useful lagging indicator - when the price begins to rise, it is likely to indicate that there has been a material change in the company's prospects. Whilst the price remains around $1.10, I remain confident that there's plenty of upside, but even my most optimistic valuations don't get me anywhere near $5b at the present time.
I think that Animoca has a positive future. There is a reasonable chance that our holdings could multibag over the next few years. Most of this conviction comes from knowing that we operate in a hypergrowth industry. In other words, if you have some exposure to blockchain gaming (especially a company with fingers in many pies), the chances of losing money, as things stand presently, is low.
If i'm being pessimistic, all you need to do is provide some info in support of your opinions that Animoca justifies a $5b valuation. If there's some reasonable basis to your ramps, then they would no longer be mindless ramps, because they'd be supported with something of substance. For example, how do you arrive at your valuation that "quite likely Animoca’s current stake [in Sky Mavis] is worth in the B"? This is the epitome of a ramp in my book - it goes well beyond naive investor optimism. It may well be just carelessness and/or a reflection of exuberance, but it could also be viewed as being entirely misleading or deceptive.
If you could demonstrate that there was a liklihood that Animoca holds a billion dollar interest in Sky Mavis, every single holder would owe you a massive debt of gratitude. I'd be the first to thank you (as I'd be considerably wealthier than I am now) and I imagine that many holders would be fighting each other to snap up all the remaining shares on offer through PM below $2!!
Only you know the motive underpinning your posts. Your opinion is your opinion, your perception is your perception, but don't confuse them with "facts", "truths" or "valuations". Ramps masquerading as something more objective are the worst kind. Fortunately ramps are easy to spot as they all share the same trait: they are never supported by any evidence, new information or compelling insights.
Ann: Leads investment into Sky Mavis, maker of Axie Infinity, page-243
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