ELE 0.00% 0.5¢ elmore ltd

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  1. 2,114 Posts.
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    I agree Oxxa, patience will be key (as it long has been).

    Logic tells me that it is unlikely that we have a supply side issue as that would have required an ASX announcement, and we know that has not happened. We can only speculate on why we have heard so little on the demand side. My speculation, based on circumstantial evidence, is that Cedric is wrestling with two key demand side challenges: the first is being able to technically 'sell' prior to formal consent for operation being granted by regulators; and the second being the need to show ongoing sustained demand for Phase 2 product.

    Given the expectation that the consent for operation should only be days away now, my expectation is that they have been busy stockpiling. This is not a 'waste of cash' as a lot of the costs are fixed and are being utilised in creating valuable inventory. As an aside on the value of building an inventory stock-pile - our current annual production capability would only fill 3/4 of the ship of the largest single shipment sent of iron ore (to China). Of course, we would need deep piles of cash to fund this inventory build-up....but it would be an investment (so to speak), rather than an expense.

    Once the consent for operation is received, the inventory is drawn upon and the domino effect to cash inflow will be triggered. We know where the first 4,000 tonnes are going. Again, drawing on logic, I am speculating that Cedric is working hard on getting something more 'bankable' than the hope of continual 4,000 tonne PO's from BMM. Whether that be a more robust off take agreement with minimum purchase commitments and a price range, and/or whether that be additional customers, home and abroad - I don't think matters to the would be 'bankers' too much. At stake here is low cost debt funding from development banks, for a rapid expansion of beneficiation capacity by end 2019 - or indeed earlier if circumstances permit. While the market would love to hear about the next PO, I hope and trust Cedric and team are taking the time to build a 'bankable' demand side story.

    All IMO.
 
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