The benefits of having Ganfeng as a partner outweigh the risks imo. Ganfeng provide access to capital, their supply and procurement chains in China, technical expertise and experience designing and building the plant, and a more diversified investor base for the project.
Ganfeng appears to be well captialised, so the fact they are the sole offtake partner for stage 1 does not present any obvious counterparty risk. That Ganfeng is domiciled in China could be a risk worth discussing if relations between the Chinese and Australian governments break down, but the opposite appears to be true since Labor has come to power and the previous icy relations caused by the Lib/Nat government appear to be thawing.
IMO country risk is still the overriding concern weighing on the share price and the reason for the obvious discount. Look at the resource upgrade as an example. Extending the mine life really has no effect on the share price when the political events in Mali over the next 18 months are the market's chief concern. The market is right to discount the value of Leo, but the risks will either be realised or abate over the next 18 months. and if Leo makes it through those events to production and the sale of concentrate, those who have held through will be handsomely rewarded. Of course, the opposite could be true any the risks are realised and sanctions are imposed or the security situation deteriorates.
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