Ann: Letter of Intent for $100m Northern Territory Farmout to AEP, page-34

Great post orion. There is no panic yet because everyone was caught off guard by the fall in consumption in the last few years, which has probably postponed the kind of capacity crunch you allude to. In their latest report AEMO forecast that the NEM has enough generation capacity for the next ten years but after over-estimating consumption during the last decade, there is now every chance they have under-stated it. There is going to be a sh*t load of wind installed in the next five years but as you say if Victoria start retiring some brown coal then they will need a fair chunk of gas to replace it.