Hi Kotaredrew,
So the initial First Tin listing is to happen in 4 weeks on the LSE, and for me personally, I only invest in the domestic market. The ASX listing is supposed to happen prior to June. If the tin market continues in the fashion it has been of late, then I fear that by June the First Tin share price will be a bit further north.
I think a broader question for the forum (and it is a speculative one) is that if First Tin are seeking an ASX listing, what is to stop them just buying ANW out, or propose a scheme of arrangement whereby ANW shares become First Tin shares?
I understand that First Tin have a strong ESG focus which is incompatible with the coal projects, but the Mackenzie acquisition is unlikely to go through to completion, and Ashford is coking coal and if First Tin didn't want to retain it (which I doubt they would) it could be sold off.
Conceptually, it appears that if First Tin were to buy ANW out, there actually wouldn't be too much First Tin dilution as they would effectively bring external ownership of their company internal and under their control.
If First Tin were to set up their own ASX listing, how much does that all cost? Would it be more economical to simply offer existing ANW shareholders a premium for their shares so that First Tin gets their listing?
In the takeover scenario, is it in First Tin's interest to keep the ANW market capitalisation as low as possible? Or at least below the equivalent value of the 22.6% share of First Tin? Negativity towards ANW management might aid that goal - even if the First Tin IPO goes remarkably well.
I've been thinking about these things and I'm genuinely interested in the forum's views of these questions. What would First Tin's corporate strategy be? Is ANW a target or, might First Tin want to put as much distance between the two companies as possible?
Cheers,
PaullyD
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