Hi Giddy, I'm not participating in the SPP. That said, I picked...

Hi Giddy, I'm not participating in the SPP. That said, I picked up another 2m options today from that persistent and determined seller. I'd say he or she has dumped about 6m options on me at every opportunity above 2.6c over the past 4 weeks, and if the seller is who I think it is, they should have about 3m left. Just a theory, but I expect the selling pressure to end soon.

The SPP itself is constructed with a safety net placement of 18m FPOs at 9.5c. This will secure approximately $1.71m before costs, a figure I believe will be more than enough to see the outcome of the HCV trial. A decent reduction in viral load coincident with manageable side effects would make access to capital a non-issue for Biotron. They'd be beating investors back with a stick.

This intelligently-timed but poorly-executed capital raising should easily see the company through to boom or bust. I still plan on exercising my options early to allow sufficient breathing space for negotiations in the event of phII success.

Looking at the announcement today, I must say it was one of the best examples of communication from the company to date. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that was the first public release of specific previous in vitro efficacy data for BIT225, and it was damned impressive. A serious reduction in viral load plotted out for the investment community to see. Add that data to the ongoing safety data emerging from the phII trial, and it's easy to get excited about the potential for success.

It's important to remember that this is just a preliminary trial. Any significant reduction in vial load will be considered a success for this first-in-class drug. Continued positive safety data will precede a likely reduction in viral load that could see a blockbuster (+$1 billion p.a) drug emerge. Additionally, the safety data we are currently inferring has relevance well beyond the HCV trial - it demonstrates the safety of a potential platform drug that could also be utilised against HIV, the flu, Dengue and more. Hell, even if the HCV trial is a dud and shows inadequate efficacy, the company will still be in possession of a drug that specifically targets the Vpu protein that allows HIV to hide in reservoir cells. I can't believe the market isn't pricing this safety data more seriously. BITO must have the highest return potential in the sector. These low prices are the artificial distortionary outcome of a bad SPP and won't last past the closing date of 23/03/11. The stock is ready for a run.

Cheers