@gallea, I think your mathematics is a little understated and you have missed one or two parts to the business, but still a very good post.
The clean light is expected to sell for A$99.99 and $US69.99. The gross margin of the business is stated to be between 30-35%. We know the $USD10 light drags the average down and runs at about gross 25% with a net margin closer to 20%. I would expect the clean light to have a 35%+ Gross margin and around $30% net margin ( depending on whether its sold online direct or through a bricks and mortar retailer).
I don't know if there will be 500k, 5m or 50m of these lights sold!!!. That is up to the consumer and the marketing team. And also comes down to its effectiveness. Results of which will continue to be announced. It almost moves Bud in the Health Care sector of the ASX!!.
There are now 3 key company "game changers" in play.
(1) Clean Light....exponential potential...this will take time and wont be in the next quarterly!! The journey has not even begun yet.
(2) $10 light. Amazon and google sell 100m assistants per year. They want to connect every assistant to a light or many lights. They also want that light to be affordable and top quality. They get that at Lifx.
(3) Switch. This is the sleeping giant IMO. This is an award winning device. Have the ability to turn dumb lights into smart lights. With the Lifx app scheduling and monitoring, its the first step to having a mini OHM in every home. The data would be priceless. Connection to the voice assistants is essential. Lifx switch have a fantastic margin, they look great and have all the features at a reasonable price.....exponential potential.
There is a 4th sleeping giant at Thor industries. Their fortunes have turned around recently as people buy RV's rather than travel overseas. The promised roll out from Airstream into the other 16 brands that Thor own could unfold in 2021/22. But lets just leave that one sleeping for the moment as the attention is on the LIFX business.
Then there is the OHM that is being fine turned in the background. The mistake first time around was they built a device and tried to sell it. This time they are asking, what device do customers demand, and now they are building that. From all reports as soon as covid restriction lift, they are ready to announce a material Ohm installation and recurring monthly revenue.
IMHO, All the ducks, ( aside from the Debt to Eastfield ) are lined up for a fantastic 12-18 months. Eastfield will get sorted!! The fact they have offered forgiveness of part of the debt show that they can see that Lifx manufacturing to key to their business.
As for the SP, there will be dip and rallies as news comes and goes. At the moment there are stock shortages, as its only recent the PO finance was approved. I am not expecting the August update to be EBITDA positive like July was! They cant sell stock thats not on the selves. DM already prepared us for that when he stated that growth is not in a straight line.
IMO, it is healthy for SP corrections to occur and shake out weak longs and place them in more secure hands, who can see the medium term and long term potential of this coy. As stated many times in this forum, 31 Jan 4c could be the real starting point for this coy.
HOLDTIGHT.
