UCG will NOT be widely taken up globally over the next 5 years while there is cheap natural gas to be had and prior to wider acceptance of the technology.
What WILL happen in my humble and uninformed opinion is the emergence of pockets of UCG acceptance eg. Cook Inlet, South Australia and maybe a site in India for starters. These sites will provide the basis for further growth. GTL can only follow the acceptance of the UCG at these sites in the first instance.
My "punt" on all of this is that Alaska will continue to export natural gas to Japan and elsewhere (due to investment in conventional plays around CI) AND that syngas will become the most afforable feed stock for power generation in that state. Securing an upstream UCG resources at CI is thus VITALLY IMPORTANT to LNC's strategy moving forward. In the US, extraction of syngas in Wyoming will, I hope, follow an Alaskan lead WHEN gas prices in the lower 48 creep over maybe the $6 mark. So let's do Cook Inlet first!
Yes it would be very nice to get some feedback on Lea #1's conventional prospects (be it good, bad or ugly) .... and shame on the company for not doing so ...... BUT Lea #1 is chicken feed in comparison to the broader strategy here.
cheers
LNC Price at posting:
$2.57 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held