IMO, Tim Goyder would be open to sell the KV Project (or both KV and Buldania Projects) if the price he would ask is paid. I'd do the same. I don't think he would insist to be a battery materials emperor if the money paid is right.
What would be the right price for TG and us?
We need to make a benchmarking in the current market conditions by considering the future trends of ithium supply chain and EV business (TG and the buyers would do the same). Future trends should be the main tool to determine about the price of KV project.
Today's prices will be only a guide for starting point for future prices though.
IMO, PLS's market cap would be the starting point, which is nearly $6b (including its debt).
PLS has big disadvantages in comparison to LTR; lower grade (1.25%), mining from 6 different pits, high iron content, problematic ground water supply (high impurities), problematic processing machines (upgraded a few times), etc. They have no refinery on site project either.
As you may know their latest (and first) auction in BMX (Battery Material Exchange) was for 5.5% Spod concentrate and sold at $1,250/t. They even didn't mention of SC6 (6% spod. conc.).
PLS has %30 more resource than LTR but LTR can easily increase its underground resource over 200mt if they make more exploration work there, That is for sure IMO.
So, LTR is in prime position even against PLS.
Then I would think that LTR's market cap would be more than $4b without Chemical refinery (on-site), which would be 30% less than PLS's market cap today. That is the floor level for LTR's MC. That would imply to $2 per share.
Not including Buldania though.
As we know that the vertical integration (chemical refinery) is the main target of LTR according to its presentations because of profit margin, then a project at that level is going to be a value more than $5b.
That would imply to $2.5 per share for today if anyone wants to buy it.
I would sell it happily at $3. ($6b MC).
I would be happy to put today's $3 in my pocket instead of $10 two or three years later.
Who could be the buyer?
I think it's BHP.
I can see a lots of indications (smokes) that it's BHP. We will see it.
Tony O is not a hurdle for any takeover.
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