NMT 4.00% 12.0¢ neometals ltd

Ann: Lithium Battery Recycling briefing, page-15

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  1. 232 Posts.
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    I know I'm just preaching to the converted on here but it is worth restating the economics of the 50TPD plant are impressive. Perhaps too good?

    By my calcs (happy to be corrected) - Capex of $150M + 10% contingency -so US$165M (AU$220M)

    Operating cost of US$28.5M (say $30M).

    At current prices (I'm using LME quotes - not perfect I know but easily accessible) the Nickel alone would generate over US$200M + Cobalt US$70M + Copper US$17M + Lithium US$62M = US$349

    That's an EBITDA of $320M!! (AU $425M) Possible pay back in under 6 months!!

    Also remember that even with zero debt NMT could (almost) finance their 50% share of the first 50 TPD plant off its own balance sheet.

    I think CAPEX and OPEX will actually be higher than forecast (they usually are) and who knows what commodity prices will be in 2023 but even if they are both out by 50% to the negative it is still an amazing return.

    So by 2023 (about 18 months) NMT's share of EBITDA would be a bit over AU$200M p.a. - apply a PE multiplier of about 15x (ASX200 average is actually about 20x) and you get a MC of $3B+ (give or take) and by that stage the Stelco and Itochu plants (plus potentially a Scandinavian plant that we own with Hannans) would be well progressed.

    NMT also has a couple of other little projects that may have a bit of value but who's counting.

    All just my opinion.
    Cheers,
    SC

 
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