Ann: Lithium Business Update, page-13

Cash costs are going to be above $330, maybe significantly above for the next 6months.

i can't help feeling like Greenbushes is now acting as an unofficial warehouse for our partners to stockpile Li and potentially earn significant upside, and by that I mean, buy it at last month's price minus a 5% discount, and what's to stop them from selling it for future delivery at a premium (4-5%) making a nice little profit along the way. An alternative, and much more worrying concern is that they see prices dropping further and even a 5% discount over a month won't make it cheaper to purchase. (More below)

Capital development is continuing, so what I think is most likely is that Q2 shows a significant drop in TLEA dividend from the previous quarter, Q3 will see another significant drop in the dividend (presuming the dividend is still paid quarterly) and in Q4 we'll see the impact of the just announced pricing scheme at which point, assuming lithium remains around current prices, the dividend is likely to be in the range of $10-50m.

in light of recent announcements that most of the big players are still churning out profits, I suspect spod prices will continue to drift lower and I can see a scenario where PLS and IGO will be the last ones standing, and it will take a few of the other players, like MIN, throwing in the towel before we start to see a reversal. Just TLEA and PLS alone will be adding +1MTPA in coming years to contribute to supply.

If IGO can maintain some cashflow during that period and hold onto their cash, there might be some great assets available at some great prices in the next 6-12 months, or who knows, Ivan might steer the ship in a totally new direction!

gltah.