AZL (ASX) Ann: Lithium Drilling Approval at Prairie

Originally posted by BRProject: ↑

Try not to sing their praises yet. The company has yet to release any meaningful independently verified business/economic case eg. PFS. Narratives like "leading producer of LCE in North America" is selling hype (no wonder there is chat about "pump and dump" is rampant) not facts.

I'm investing solely based on Prairie Lithium project as I often cite for a reason, prior to PFS is a risk/reward calculation... which has so far paid off handsomely... but I'm not here for a quick buck. I invest expecting millions in return. The project may have so far, as of this writing produced 2.5L of brine concentrate. That's not going to make anyone $millions. Assuming that's 3k mg of LCE, they'd still need to show ability to scale that up to 1,000x more and produce daily instead of the 2-4weeks it took to produce... for example.

Anyone still clutching at hopes and prayers for Big Sandy to produce anything in the next 5 years are fooling themselves then blaming Paul (who's probably also fooling himself). I mean just look at Bradda Head Lithium, they are literally uttering "challenging financial conditions". This company if I'm not mistaken had to deal with AZL about something.. someone sued someone I'd imagine and was settled out of court.

Back to Prairie... Board needs to release the PFS (period). Any delay is a big red flag the project may not be economical and "they" need to tweak the numbers. On the other hand, releasing it before Christmas would be a huge uplift to confidence, especially if it shows commercial viability relative if not better to its peers.

So what exactly should we look for and how do we know if it's great or not great? Below Vulcan's PFS back in 2021 as an example (that got their share price flying "to the moon" as they say):
- 15.85 Mt LCE equivalent @ 181mg/L lithium
- NPV $3.5B (AUD)
- Pre-tax IRR 31%, Post-tax IRR 26%
- Capex $2.7B (AUD)

(Sidenote lecture: I am increasingly put off by the immaturity of these threads. It's like I walked right into a high school full of know it all kids arguing with professionals. For those new to these numbers, I don't intend to sound condescending but I've since found to constantly get asked to explain them. I'd love to help you but if you can't help yourselves and educate yourselves to understanding the basics to business, and I do mean 101 basic, then you shouldn't be investing in the stock market. Stocks are not mere graphs and patterns. Stocks are businesses. If you're looking for a quick buck then you're just gambling... nothing wrong with it so long as you can admit to the fact you are gambling then kudos to you if and when you make a quick buck. But don't be bitter if you lose your bet. That's on you not the company or the Board that runs it. Mining companies in particular, explorers and developers are 5-10yrs vesting period before expecting a conservative 25% yearly return for the life of mine. Anything extra is a bonus. That's why it's called "investing" in the first place. Have a nice weekend. Cheers)

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