Chinese spot hydroxide seems to enjoy a ~30% premium over spot...

Chinese spot hydroxide seems to enjoy a ~30% premium over spot carbonate (per SMM). So that twitter account is a bit of a joke if it doesn't report both LiOH and Li2CO3. It's really through hydroxide that we can learn about SC6 pricing.

If we see SC6 at 4300, and using SMM's LiOH index currently at 48,950 usd/t, SC6 is about 8.7% of LiOH.

Or put another way, LiOH is 11.4 x the SC6 price. (Makes sense because you need ~8.5 t of SC6 to make 1 t of LiOH, and then you have some margin for the converter.)

But when you look at price projections for the rest of the decade, that ratio changes as (it's assumed) SC6 supply will become more plentiful. By 2029 both bullish RK Equity and mildly bearish UBS suggest LiOH will be closer to 15 x SC6 (or SC6 about 6.6% of LiOH).

We see miners capture most of the margin now, but in the future converters (it's assumed) will capture more of it.

Something to keep an eye on. Any sharp change in that ratio should probably interest us more than a sharp change in spot price.