To add my 2 cents to the announcement that LNG LTD will not extend the deadline for satisfaction of the conditions precedent to the Liquefaction Tolling Agreement with Meridian... very good news! I'll set the record straight for all the doubters who think otherwise, Meridian was not at the same stage of readiness as Magnolia, in setting up their receiving terminal. Meridian had conditions precedent that were generally associated with their ongoing sales arrangements and relationship to UK gas economics. They are a small organisation, a minnow, who are facing challenges. We were always continuing to market the full 8mt and were not going to wait for Meridian in the event we are able to sell the full 8mt before they are able to achieve success. We pushed them out the door, not the other way around. Promising signs!
As for the increase in capacity and how costly this will be... the capacity increase results from back-calculating the actual capacity of the facility based on the mature design and equipment selected. Specifically, the Siemens gas turbines have a margin of power over what we required (these come in only specific fixed sizes by their nature), and we also bought our Chart cold boxes with excess surface area (this is essentially free - only the cost of the additional aluminium, which is minimal). We can expect a small impact on cost, potentially a few lines would have to get larger to enable the higher feed gas flow but compared to 10% more capacity, this is peanuts and obviously more LNG is always better in economics!
In light of knowing the Chinese have a penchant for 8s, the luckiest number in their culture, it's interesting the company has increased capacity by .8mt. It might be a far fetched stretch of the imagination but also, just maybe the Chinese have given a subtle request to increase capacity by that amount to bless the project with good fortune. The Lucky number inspired China to start Beijing Olympics at 8:08pm on the 8/8/2018. It's all about the power of 8! The number is viewed as so " auspicious " among Asian cultures, that are definitely more attuned to astrology, numerology and the good luck vibe than western culture, it's become entwined in native superstitions. In China, 8 is pronounced "ba" which closely resembles the word for prosperity/ wealth/fortune/ success (fa). Businessmen favour it very much! Multiples of 8 are even better, as 88 bears a resemblance to "shuang xi" or double happiness.
There's no conspiracy theories as to why we've failed to secure BTAs over the last couple of years. We had zero chance in 2016, 2017 and the window of opportunity slightly opened in 2018. Remember, when Cheniere signed a 1mt BTA with Trafigura on Jan 16 2018, the last time a US company had signed a contract before that was way back on Oct 28 2015, Cheniere locking in Engie for .90mt. Got to ignore the circus going on this year with Venture Global signing 7mt who claim to set liquefaction fees at discounted prices in the $2.00 - $2.25 range - no EPC contract, no financing, still awaiting FERC authorisation. Cheniere (1.2mt + 1.1mt SPAs signed with CNPC, Petronas respectively) & Anardarko Mozambique (1.2mt SPA with EDF) the only worldwide companies to lock in SPAs for " next wave " projects! Sales reached 30.2mt, a bumper season that's seen the next boom gather force paving the way for a record 2019!
BP has reached a FID on its 2.5mt, FLNG Greater Tortue development in Mauritania/ Senegal. Work on the project will begin in the first quarter of 2019 with first gas expected to be produced in 2022. BP will be the sole buyer of the LNG.
Interestingly, AGL's proposed Crib Point terminal in Victoria is certainly moving forward. A contract has been signed for a 10 year charter with Norway's High for the supply of a floating storage and regasification unit.
Wish you all a Merry Christmas and a very prosperous/ Happy New Year!!
JK.
