You didn’t mention the twigmiester! And Incitec.. But a great...

First 75 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
justinmetals

8,034 Posts.

1559

19/10/21

22:52

Post #: 56921270
Share

Originally posted by Brobel ↑

Reality is, every permutation or combination is on the table at the moment for the upcoming M&A action.

Whilst I would not rule out any play with STX or WGO, I believe the perceived "bad blood" in that JV needs to play out internally, first. I think that is in play at the moment, with the likes of Regal recently taking a large position in WGO. I'm expecting that party to be crashed shortly...

Having had experience in the Corp Finance / IB world, I know that there will be a number of IB's running the numbers, having "informal" chats and presenting proposals to various parties out there - both potential prey and potential acquirers. Bit like having an attack plan and defensive plan. That is how it works. Been involved in a few in my past life. The wheels will be turning as we speak, and invariably when one player makes a move it will force the hand of others. The games are likely to just be beginning...

Wrt NWE, they are almost like in their own protected universe. MIN/ERL have all the power ATM. They have a 19.7% blocking stake and fair to say, everyone knows MIN have the balance sheet to make M&A plays. Chris E will not want to be on the losing end after his attempt at AWE. He is a very good chess player IMO, but won't pay nose bleed prices - a very commercial astute MD.

So who else?

Well, I have inkling the NWS JV players will be worth watching. I think the attractiveness of back-filling the NWS LNG with PB gas will entice some action. With BP taking all of BPT's Waitsia LNG, they are sorted. Mitsui is likely going to be selling their half to themselves I imagine - as MIMI (which is a 50/50 Mitsui / Mitsubishi JV for NWS) is well entrenched in the Aus gas market. I would not rule out Mitsubishi making a play. They are a very competitive lot the Japanese... Mitsubishi will likely want to show Mitsui they can play with the big boys too. Again I have seen that happen at involving both donwstream and upstream assets.

You can rule out BHP IMO as they are pushing off their O&G business to Woodside.. so rule out WPL too... too much on their plate ATM.

Chervron I believe are selling their stake... and Shell... maybe.... unlikely though.

Wesfarmers are a dark horse. Very powerful balance sheet, and have a proven history of being very acquisitive. Didn't they snap up Kidman lithium only 2 years ago? Their fertilizer business is very gas hungry and they quite like the idea of controlling the whole supply chain. I have dealt with the WES M&A team in Perth in my former corporate life... bunch of crafty, super smart people there. WES is very powerful in WA circles too (plus all the way up to the Fed govt).

Honestly I could keep going with my theories... but I may bore some of you!

Needless to say... watch - this - space.

GLTA

Expand

You didn’t mention the twigmiester! And Incitec.. But a great read all the same. I like the Wesfarmers idea. They got into coal 12 years ago if I recall properly. Mitsui/Mitsubishi need backfill don’t they?
Maybe there is too much drilling to do still, another 12 months drilling to shuffle the pieces; unless, some big fish gas derisked the pond sufficiently in their own mind to start fishing with some big hooks and big bait

Last edited by justinmetals: 19/10/21

NWE Price at posting: 2.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

CLE

Cyclone signs MOU with Vale for development of Iron Bear play

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 46, 2024

EEG

NT Gov't delivers environmental approval for Empire Energy's Beetaloo Carpentaria pilot gas play

Week 46 Wrap: Copper hits 2mth low as Trump threatens net zero pace; US rally fades; HotCopper’s picks

3DA

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

CUF

CuFe sells its Crossroads gold royalty to Northern Star for $4M cash; says better than waiting for mine launch

BNL

Blue Star Helium sees approval for five more wells at 'Galactica/Pegasus' project in Colorado

GDM

Banshee's historic trenches prove rich in antimony and gold for GDM

BTH

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

IRX

InhaleRX gains approval for clinical trial to test non-opioid therapy for cancer pain

First 75 Last

Add NWE (ASX) to my watchlist

You didn’t mention the twigmiester! And Incitec.. But a great...

Top Stories

Cyclone signs MOU with Vale for development of Iron Bear play

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 46, 2024

NT Gov't delivers environmental approval for Empire Energy's Beetaloo Carpentaria pilot gas play

Week 46 Wrap: Copper hits 2mth low as Trump threatens net zero pace; US rally fades; HotCopper’s picks

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

CuFe sells its Crossroads gold royalty to Northern Star for $4M cash; says better than waiting for mine launch

Blue Star Helium sees approval for five more wells at 'Galactica/Pegasus' project in Colorado

Banshee's historic trenches prove rich in antimony and gold for GDM

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

InhaleRX gains approval for clinical trial to test non-opioid therapy for cancer pain

Featured News