Ann: Loy Yang A Unit 2 Generator Fault, page-34

FYI

• We estimate an A$43 million impact to FY2022 NPAT from the Loy Yang outage: AGL has disclosed Unit 2 at Loy Yang Power Station has suffered an outage from an electrical fault. The unit, which generates approximately 7.5% of Victoria’s electricity, may be taken out of service until 1 August 2022 on preliminary estimates. Assuming the outage lasts until 1 August, we estimate a 14% or A$43 million impact to FY2022 NPAT and a 3% or A$21 million impact to FY2023. While we are below consensus in FY2022 (prior to street earnings changes), we remain significantly above FY2023 consensus on the basis of higher wholesale prices and believe the market will likely upgrade.