G’day Cyberguy, I should have clarified my assumptions a little better there.
There are actually more variables at play than with O&G and the “rule of thumb” I used there is just my own and not any sort of industry standard. Also as you have pointed out it is not at the conservative end of the spectrum either.
The rough rule of thumb I used there is for a high-grade, near surface deposit that has an all in cash cost of production of around $400 / Oz. (This I believe is being achieved again in the industry now for such deposits as reality settles back over the industry. Remember 12 years ago with gold at $400 AUD per Oz gold mining companies were making money!). My own calcs have used a figure of gold at around $1,400 per Oz (AUD) that then leaves a profit of around $1,000 AUD per Oz.
These were the rough figures I have applied to Murrin Murrin in my own research as I personally believe that if 70,000 Oz Au JORC estimate comes in at Murrin Murrin and the best results were being hit at the bottom of the hole then such a JORC estimate may turn out to be conservative relative to what is actually there given its still open at depth. There are many assumptions in my thinking and it is just me trying to quantify potential before official estimates are released by the company after a bit more drilling.
You are right that a properly conservative estimate would probably be at least half of what I have calculated, however IMO that would still be an impressive first up result relative to the company’s current MC.
KIN Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
