ACM australian critical minerals limited

Although they were not in my list of Weekly Reports (because...

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    Although they were not in my list of Weekly Reports (because some work is involved), I was still tracking all of them in my Watchlist every day. And many for close to 6 months. As Li sector was not going anywhere, you could say I was not getting motivated to put it there.

    Many of these stocks I actually played but more of scalping.

    As I have been writing on other Li threads, the Li sector has had this new phenomena of a number of small stocks buying land, playing nearology, playing the hype, etc. This I call Stage 1. This is the best time to play a Li stock of last several months. Stocks could make a jump up to 100, 200 or even 300%.

    Then the reality comes. Assay results. This is call Stage 2. I get out before all these stocks reach Stage 2 - before they face reality. So why do I get out before Stage 2? Because reality is not good. Last year I played a few in Stage 2 but with no good outcome.

    Last year flavour was EFE, EVR, MRR, QXR, RAS, MQR, BNR, TYX and so on.. Once reality set in, nearly all such stocks lost 80% of their value. So Stage 2 is not good. I do Weekly Reports and track each stock with numbers. And the numbers are not good. Once Stage 2 was reached and stocks had dropped around 80%, sadly NONE of them were able to come back. Even after one year they are still stuck there. There has been no Stage 3 for them, yet.

    This year we started with Canadian stocks - lot of new players, Stage 1 hype of 100 to 300% increase. Then we reached Stage 2 - reality. Most have dropped or dropping now towards their base of drop between 60 to 80%. And if previous stats are to be relied, the odds of a Stage 3 is very low. Not saying individual stocks cannot do something great. But the stats and number crunching I do is that the odds are very small thy may come back, so I don't play them any more.

    We are getting a fresh set of stocks now playing the nearology etc, and playing Stage 1/Stage 2 - like ARV, ODE, RR1, RDN, ZEU, VRS - I feel many have completed Stage 2 and some are slowly walking back to their base. Another hype around Brazilian Li - they may follow same trend - just look at SLM.

    Sadly except for AZS and to extend WC8, none have made it very big, DLI is trying. LLI was trying. So just saying that odds are not good. Stats say that out of 100 explorers may be a couple may make it. If it is one someone is holding, they can make huge gains, may be life changing gains. And that is what attracts people. But the other 98 story out of 100 is not good. Its good to play Stage 1 - hype but get out before Stage 2 - reality. No advice here, its just what I found from experience and I follow this. Reason - none have moved from Stage 2 (after big drop) to a new up life.

    Last few weeks some posters asked me to included a few of them. It was already on my mind. So I thought I would do it.

    So, honestly I don't have a strong reason for your query - why now, especially if we may not have found bottom. It was more I was thinking of doing it for sometime and a few prodded me.

    But the thing is we never know where the bottom. I am also hoping we may (just probability), that general markets may move up in next few months. A positive general market may impact to an upside on Li stocks, though Li are dealing with some problems of their own - Li price, general Li sentiment, shorting etc.

    Hope I have answered a part of your question. I thought I may as well share some experience. As I always say, I can be completely wrong with my analysis/interpretation, so please dyor. All the b est.
    Last edited by dc1234: 08/10/23
 
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