LTP

1.46%

$1.74 ltr pharma limited

Ann: LTR Pharma to List on the ASX, page-136

First 136 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Rorbag

1,353 Posts.

262

19/02/24

14:12

Post #: 72484536
Share

Originally posted by JackBNimble: ↑

agree it has been a good start but I did expect more. Reason being the asymmetric risk/reward profile. If it doesnt work for whatever reason it gets nailed. If it gets approved they're selling it in Aus in June/July, the US late 2024 and I presume the other major markets thereafter.

I calculate 5% market share would be USD225m EBITDA. If we use a multiple of 10 that is a mkt cap of USD 2.2B or AUD 3.4b for a company currently valued at AUD 42m (off 30c). Lets halve that for arguments sake and its still so silly I cant bring myself to write how many times it could multiply. What if it got more - 10, 20% etc with a better product?

Thats all fine but what are the odds of approval? Impossible to calculate accurately but the trial is to assess safety and if the drug can effectively enter the bloodstream via the mucous membrane. They proved the later in 2020 so its reasonable to say its probable in this setting.

So I simply look at it like this - if its not approved I take a hit. If its approved I believe it will multiply many times and I believe I have a better than 50:50 chance of approval. I'd take odds half as good every single time and if correct I think it should be trading higher.

Note - I have been long since pre IPO (2.5 years) and added after IPO. I am wrong more than I would like. This sort of potential downside risk is not for most ie dont risk what you cant afford to lose. The pain is real when wrong - believe me on nothing more than that. Verify everything else Ive written above and plz tell me if Im wrong with evidence and try to be civil. Its ok to have a different view, you can short it through a CFD broker if you do - (I wouldnt because of the above).

Expand

I like your excitement . Needs patent protection. FDA approval process is arduous. 150day approval period once FDA approved clinical trials are completed so unlikely to see USA market penetration until mid to late 2025 IF THEY GET FDA APPROVAL. Very interesting watch this one.

Reminder of timeline attached

LTP Price at posting: 30.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

QML

Metallurgical testing shows saleable copper and pyrite from QMines' Develin Creek project

CBA breaks trading record on strong day for Aussie financials

SBW

Shekel Brainweigh investor presentation webinar – the future of retail automation

OCC

Orthocell kicks off collagen-based dental bone repair product sales in Canada; eyeing next stop Brazil

RMX

Red Mountain Mining: record gold prices, two projects, two greenstone belts

BIT

HotCopper users blunt as Biotron sinks -35%; long-awaited COVID drug results same as placebo

As Nvidia cools, we're looking to Aussie AI

Week 36 Wrap: AI hype wave tested again; Oz per capita recession continues; AirTrunk’s $40B+ payday

LAM

Laramide sniffs prime Kazakh uranium, with agreement over 6000 square km land position

PRU

Perseus Mining boosts stake in Predictive Discovery to 19.9% as latter's flagship project stalls

There are more pages in this discussion • 11 more messages in this thread...

First 136 Last

Add LTP (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $1.74		Change 0.025(1.46%)		Mkt cap ! $147.5M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.75	$1.77	$1.69	$536.1K	309.8K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2000	$1.73

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.75	6715	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2000	1.730
1	4224	1.705
2	4941	1.700
5	6334	1.690
1	6000	1.685

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.750	6715	1
1.755	3700	1
1.760	1700	1
1.770	427	1
1.780	7702	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

LTP (ASX) Chart

Ann: LTR Pharma to List on the ASX, page-136

Metallurgical testing shows saleable copper and pyrite from QMines' Develin Creek project

CBA breaks trading record on strong day for Aussie financials

Shekel Brainweigh investor presentation webinar – the future of retail automation

Orthocell kicks off collagen-based dental bone repair product sales in Canada; eyeing next stop Brazil

Red Mountain Mining: record gold prices, two projects, two greenstone belts

HotCopper users blunt as Biotron sinks -35%; long-awaited COVID drug results same as placebo

As Nvidia cools, we're looking to Aussie AI

Week 36 Wrap: AI hype wave tested again; Oz per capita recession continues; AirTrunk’s $40B+ payday

Laramide sniffs prime Kazakh uranium, with agreement over 6000 square km land position

Perseus Mining boosts stake in Predictive Discovery to 19.9% as latter's flagship project stalls

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: LTR Pharma to List on the ASX, page-136

Top Stories

Metallurgical testing shows saleable copper and pyrite from QMines' Develin Creek project

CBA breaks trading record on strong day for Aussie financials

Shekel Brainweigh investor presentation webinar – the future of retail automation

Orthocell kicks off collagen-based dental bone repair product sales in Canada; eyeing next stop Brazil

Red Mountain Mining: record gold prices, two projects, two greenstone belts

HotCopper users blunt as Biotron sinks -35%; long-awaited COVID drug results same as placebo

As Nvidia cools, we're looking to Aussie AI

Week 36 Wrap: AI hype wave tested again; Oz per capita recession continues; AirTrunk’s $40B+ payday

Laramide sniffs prime Kazakh uranium, with agreement over 6000 square km land position

Perseus Mining boosts stake in Predictive Discovery to 19.9% as latter's flagship project stalls

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News