GBZ 0.00% 1.0¢ gbm resources limited

Ann: Lubuk Mandi Project Tailings Resource Estima, page-7

  1. 2,599 Posts.
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    re: Ann: Lubuk Mandi Project Tailings Resourc... After today’s Ann ...and the positive SP reaction, here is my bluesky look at what GBZ may be worth IF (I mean when) Lubuk Mandi is successful.

    On the face of it, 34,800 oz gold is equivalent of approx 50 Mil in gold (Aud $1,400/Oz) less costs.

    If costs and inefficiencies reduced the 50 Mil by 15 Mil -that would mean that our 40% would be worth around 15Mil (remember the mill/processing plant is already built).

    If we said 10 to 15 Mil to be safe ...so what does that make GBZ worth in the future?

    To consider this we need to understand that part of the cash will enable 40% of the hard rock drilling program and achieve exploration target between 174,000 ounces and 443,000 ounces (yes I copied and pasted).

    Let’s take the average of 250,000 ounces. At $14,000/Oz that is equivalent to about Aud $350 Mil minus ...I don't know ...$150 Mil in costs & inefficiencies (drill/assay/design mine/ refurbish crusher/ build haulroads/buy plant & equip to drive on said haul roads ...etc).

    So...here's the tricky bit ...after listing on the Singapore Stock Exchange ...how diluted will we be?

    If the aim of listing was to raise 50Mil; and if that meant our 40% was diluted to 30%, then our share of the Lubuk Mandi Operation should (or could) be worth:

    1. 10 to 15 mil already earned from tailings (or equiv FV)
    2. 30% of $50 mil raised in listing = $15Mil (or equiv FV)
    3. 30% of $350Mil less $150Mil = $60 Mil (or equiv FV)

    1. 12.5 Mil
    2. 15 Mil
    3. 60 Mil
    Total 87.5 Mil

    This equates to a SP of 26.25 cents based solely on the Lubuk Mandi and ignores all our other assets and tenements.

    Let's say they are worth 4 cents and say that if the above happens, our SP would be around the 30c mark.

    Of course, this will not proceed to plan (although it may be better than expected), AND our newfound cashflow will us to continue exploration of our other tenements such as MILO and Mount Morgan etc.

    If TREEYO’s follow a trend back up in the next decade …then the sky really is the limit …and we will have had the funding to exist and grow.

    For me, I would break even at a share price somewhere around 10-11cents (I guess) …so it’s all very exciting after past dissappointments.

    The above guestimate is inaccurate, unreliable/wildly optimistic or pessimistic and purely served to satisfy my desire to dream.

    If anyone can improve the realism of above guestimate please help.

    Cheers,


    SJB

    I give credit to the board and staff for providing a new direction for the company that appears to offer sustainability, resilience as well as the potential for exciting growth. Well done.

 
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