Healthcare provider share (Lab):$64.41 (gross reimbursement), with $6.44 to $9.66 profit per test
Seller share (Hologic): Wholesale price $57.97 to $77.29, with $8.70 to $15.46 profit
Patient cost:Typically $10 to $50 as co-pay, or they may pay the full test cost if they haven't met their deductible.
Knowing your aversion to the use of Chat GPT and the like, take the below with a grain of salt. I just used it to work out the estimates on the above:
If a manufacturer/seller were to obtain 7.5%-10% of total sales as an annuity (not Hologic):At 7.5% of sales: The manufacturer would receive between $18.11 million and $24.15 million annually.
At 10% of sales: The manufacturer would receive between $24.15 million and $32.21 million annually.
If the split is based on Hologic's profit:At 7.5% of Hologic's profit: The manufacturer would receive between $1.63 million and $2.90 million annually.
At 10% of Hologic's profit: The manufacturer would receive between $2.18 million and $3.87 million annually.
Probably gauges why this was a "transformational deal) for Lumos, not just based on the IP payments. It might also clarify why Hologic was happy to part with $14Million for the work if this is the revenue potential for the manufacturing of each test.
For reference, this is the
Hologic 2024 quarterly information for their Perinatal/Cytology revenue to date (FFN is included in these figures):
Hologic 2023 annual information for their Perinatal/Cytology revenue:
They generate around $70MillionUSD a quarter from this cytology/perinatal business. As IR explained to me when discussing the above, they highlighted its not just the above overall revenue figures we need to be mindful of, but it is the increased revenues in this section related specifically to perinatal diagnostics. The below was specifically discussed with IR around potential when this deal was first struck. I made comment about this and was corrected. The specific diagnostics revenue increased by $6.8Million which offset the decline in overall diagnostics to 39.7%.
Key factor here is there is consistent and ongoing revenue for Cytology/Perinatal of circa $70MillionUSD per quarter. They have canned their FFn test globally and are yet to advise of any changes to this (potential switch from Perylinx to LDX product?). If the above guesstimates are accurate, then there is substantial upside on revenue over the next 2-3 years and the market isn't considering this holistically as most retailers don't investigate this much.
If Lumos already bring in annually $10Million from current services deals and could potentially bring in another $2Million from Febridx/Viradx (conservative guess based on $500K per quarter - will know more end of month from the quarterly) and a further $3.8Million to $30Million annually from the ongoing annuities, then the company is in a very, very good position excluding other tests like the Liver test, Sexual health tests etc.
