I am assuming FebriDx is a commercially failed product and it’s...

I am assuming FebriDx is a commercially failed product and it’s clearly reflected on LDX price action.

I don't know how you figure this? None of the major institutional investors have sold out in the last 6 months. Directors have bought more. The product in all other regions outside Australia and the US do not have the same reimbursement structure like Medicare etc so you need to understand that selling the product is a direct out of pocket cost to the provider. Its a harder market to crack. Although they have sold product to these areas. $300,000USD of product sold in the previous annual report. In the first few months of US channel as well, they sold $700,000 worth. That is reasonable growth. The US would be the largest market to jump into and they have only just started sales. It is also seasonal so there are bound to be reduced sales outside of winter period.

It does also sound like you are banking all of Lumos' business on Febridx. It is a primary core product but not their bread and butter business. That comes to manufacturing and product development. What you would want to see is uptake of their branded products but a substantial increase in manufacturing and licencing deals (FFN).

Also there are many red flags *management not buying , no new distribution/sales news etc

A response from IR that I queried on this a long time ago:
I am pretty sure the HS contract is not exclusive. It certainly does not preclude the Company's own sales effort or other distributors that have already been appointed, and I would be surprised if it excluded the future appointment any other major national distributors. I did not read the announcement as though they were the only national distributor that could be appointed. Knowing Doug and their Head of Sale, Paul Kase, I would expect they are talking to some of the others. However, always need to be mindful of how many you put on. Sometimes better to have one or two, highly motivated leads than appoint everyone and have them demotivated by having a crowded field. Managing distributors can be tricky.

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The products are currently with around 20+ distributors currently. Since the below list was established, LDX signed on Henry Schein as major US distributor and is available through NHD Distribution, Amsco Medical and Good Neighbor Pharmacy. Something to understand as well, is another of the channels they are sold (Good Neighbor Pharmacy) are partnered with our direct distribution partners. LDX doesn't need to announce 54 shops that sell the product.




I think you may want to do a bit more DD on the reach of the product and the trials of the product before you write the product off.