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darrenpincini

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15/02/21

10:49

Post #: 50986303
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Originally posted by PickEm: ↑

Worth mentioning that ours is a dose escalation study in which 5 of 56 men have not PSA progressed and 19 of 56 (34%) of men remain alive. The Kaplan-Meier curve is projecting out a study median of 19.7 months survival ... couldn't ask for better than that, but imagine if most or possibly all of those 19 men are from the last enrolled and highest dose cohort (24 men on 1,200mg). I suspect the current K-M curve is projecting closer to 22 months survival for this cohort, which may end up being the relevant figure but we must wait. Also, the K-M curve projects out the survival months based on what has already occurred. I suspect the curve is a little restricted in an escalation study in that it projects survival months out to the most long lived deceased case, not beyond it. Imo events to date bias the K-M projection towards underestimating the lifespan of these men rather than overestimating it. We shall see.

The study is still in progress with a current 95% CI of 10.7 to 28.7 months, ie 9 months either side of 19.7 months. A point to note is that within this range, some numbers are much more likely than others. 28.7 months is about as likely as 10.7 months for example - which is to say very unlikely, but possible. The study managers are properly conservative so will wait for the study to run out before commenting on individual cohort performance. I couldn't ask for a more anticipation filled pre-final report though.

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