FYI for those interested... Was going to chart these but can't be bothered.. But assuming no further dilution, below tables are some sensitivities of how future share price could look based on the different growth rates / and ARR multiples (ARR tabulated in earlier post)
It would make more sense that the share price under a 5-10% CAGR scenario would have lower multiples than what 15%+ would command. Take from this as you will.. I've bolded in each what I think the most likely multiple would be for each of the growth scenarios. Noting that under the higher growth alternatives, the ARR multiple in earlier years would likely be lower as the market would take time to react / trust that growth would be consistent.
5% CAGR
ARR Multiple
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
1
3
$0.20
$0.21
$0.22
$0.23
$ 0.24
2
5
$0.33
$0.35
$0.36
$0.38
$0.40
3
7
$0.46
$0.48
$0.51
$0.53
$0.56
4
9
$0.59
$0.62
$0.65
$0.69
$0.72
5
11
$0.72
$0.76
$0.80
$0.84
$0.88
6
7
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
8
10% CAGR
ARR Multiple
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
9
3
$0.20
$0.22
$0.24
$0.26
$0.29
10
5
$0.33
$0.36
$0.40
$0.44
$ 0.48
11
7
$0.46
$0.51
$0.56
$0.61
$0.67
12
9
$0.59
$0.65
$0.72
$0.79
$0.87
13
11
$0.72
$0.80
$0.88
$0.96
$1.06
14
15
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
16
15% CAGR
ARR Multiple
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
17
3
$0.20
$0.23
$0.26
$0.30
$0.35
18
5
$0.33
$0.38
$0.43
$0.50
$0.58
19
7
$0.46
$0.53
$0.61
$0.70
$ 0.81
20
9
$0.59
$0.68
$0.78
$0.90
$1.04
21
11
$0.72
$0.83
$0.96
$1.10
$1.27
22
23
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
24
20% CAGR
ARR Multiple
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
25
3
$0.20
$0.24
$0.28
$0.34
$0.41
26
5
$0.33
$0.39
$0.47
$0.57
$0.68
27
7
$0.46
$0.55
$0.66
$0.80
$0.95
28
9
$0.59
$0.71
$0.85
$1.02
$ 1.23
29
11
$0.72
$0.87
$1.04
$1.25
$1.50
30
31
30% CAGR
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
32
ARR Multiple
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
33
3
$0.20
$0.26
$0.33
$0.43
$0.56
34
5
$0.33
$0.43
$0.56
$0.72
$0.94
35
7
$0.46
$0.60
$0.78
$1.01
$1.32
36
9
$0.59
$0.77
$1.00
$1.30
$1.69
37
11
$0.72
$0.94
$1.22
$1.59
$ 2.07
LVT Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held