Yes my MCP story has changed a few times but not in years. Smith screwed up MCP with greed stock offerings loans and over expansion. I saw this years ago and got out. Actually started long before that whn I felt REO was higher than any economics could justify) Because I found some positives for the Moly plant design you were incapable of hearing any thing but RAH RAH Moly you could not see differences between my view of management and the technical side of plant. No mater how many times I told you. Again your need to be all or nothing. Talk to Toly he will tell you I was down on Smith and how he ran MCP I was. I first bought Lynas with a fraction of profits from MCP. You are so prejudice than any time someone is not 100% in line with your view you take that as 100% negative. I saw this with mild Hybrids, which I think is a good solution, not the only one but like all solutions one with pluses and minuses. Any time I pointed out any of the negatives (low 48 voltage, Belt drive through the ice, even thes I pointed out allowed for easy retrofit and low cost) along with the positives you would go crazy with personal insults and claims of I understood nothing. When in fact it was you you were incapable of a balance view that could see pluses and minuses. Your extreme views cause you to constantly resort to personal insults whenever you disagree instead of having a discussion on different views. You are hung up on this YOY demand thing and refuse to admit you might have missed the large price drop a year ago in December. If you were not so closed minded we could have had a discussion about the size of impact and what the effect might be. Sure we would have disagreed but some views on both side would have helped others. Instead you think you are 100% correct and it had no impact. We will see in January.
Look at opening statement on my first reply to you. “Have to agree with some of what you say . Maybe demand is even a little better than what I thought for rest of world, but I do not think so.” Post #: 37131176 but because I did not agree totally and just said I do not think so you went on a rampage with insults.
Was your reply was an real attempt to foster discussion on conflicting opinions? “ Give it a rest, only person you are fooling is yourself, and best I don't comment on hard that might be.” Post #: 37134909
“ Look at both our statements on New ownership of MCP Mine “So far new owners seem to only be interested in shipping concentrate to China. If that continues that says all I need to know”
Yours “Little doubt in my mind current VC's punting Mt Pass have similar IPO aspirations but they've got into bed with the Dragon, little doubt Shenghe offered basic CF for concentrate and probably some loose promises around IP to resuscitate the ridiculous 19ktpa single circuit SX monster Aunt Moly was fantasizing for punters” So though we may disagree on causes and reasons we both see little hope for this in the near future which is very good news for Lynas. But you see my name your blood pressure probably goes up and you cannot see what you are reading only what you think I am saying. How is what I said a positive for Mountain pass being revived?
“Volume +4% & value +24% YoY and you are trying to spin that into a negative, totally delusional, and totally oblivious big picture.” Value 24% now who is delusional. Every time you talk the numbers improve. Here is the original YOY statement
“In terms of average export prices , the average export price of China's rare earths in December 2018 was US$8226.7/ton , a decrease of US$ 1512.2/ton from the previous month, a decrease of 15.5% from the previous month and an increase of 10.1% year-on-year.” http://newmat.chinaiol.com/xtcl/t/0114/72206522.html
No I am not trying to spin it into a negative. What I am trying to show you is you made an innocent mistake by not looking at a price chart to see if there was any other explanation than strong demand. Take a look at my chart, using Lynas q report data, at Dec of 17
Do really think you are being open minded saying the Nov. to Dec. Price drop of 20 % and the price rise to Jan of 17% is not worth you considering? Talk about spin you are the spin master. Maybe demand is up but demand divided by supply = prices and that is down. Give me one site that does not say Prices are down from March 18 highs and a lot more from Sept 17. Sept 17 was right in the middle of the most profitable Q. over 10 times more than H2 that Lynas ever had. I have never disagreed with you that demand is up many times from 2016. ( you do keep saying I disagree I think because you are incapable of arguing anything more recent.) Even extended my charts to sow your point because I do not disagree. But you have to lie about what I think to make me look bad. Yes demand is up. But prices are way down. By Lynas’s own figures Sept 17 64.5 September 18 40.3, a drop of more than a third. Yet in your spin you say you do not care to answer why, you do not consider this important. Have you ever considered yourself in error?
Now H1 2018 had 200M in revenue a profit of just under 50 M a profit ratio of 25% . a simple view would say a 33% REO price decrease would result in a loss. This is not true. There has been some good cost cutting. SEG is selling at a good price but we have no idea how much or price. NEXT has offered big reductions in COP. Improvements in Quality which should allow for better prices. Lynas will make a profit in H1 19. My opinion is that Lynas has been around for 10 + years, I ignore the old gold company. Investors want to see some ROI. They want profits after all this time. They had a profitable year last year so the focus will turn to what the profits are this year and what is possible a year out. Investors will buy less on the promises of a distant future and more on what is happing to day. The long term prospects will support a PE of 20 as opposed to ASX of 15. You think more that’s OK some reasoning would be nice. . Pick what ever PE you want then show what Lynas will have to do to support a stock price of over $2.00 in the next year. You want t o use a PE of 30 fine with me will then understand where you are coming form. Same goes if you want to use a H1 profit of $50 M we will at least know what you expect. We will be able to form our own opinion on if it is reasonable. I think H1 will be 10M to 20 M profit. A PE of 20 maybe 25 Max. You can disagree but at least you have something solid to disagree with rather than just fluff. With a good counter argument maybe I will raise my prices. I have no problem changing.
I do not just pick these numbers out of Blue. I make guesses then refine them every Q. for example look at my Post #: 36291811 I did allot of calculations then tested them two ways to see if they were reasonable. If you see an error pls point it out I would love to improve my numbers.
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