Lynas reopening on Monday is good news. People thinking stock...

Lynas reopening on Monday is good news. People thinking stock will go up or Lynas ramping to full production just are not looking at full picture.
First some facts since the 2025 plan came out NdPr has fallen 20%. Since the high of June 2019 it has fallen over 32%, Lynas closed on 23 March, when the worlds second biggest producer is shut down for 5 weeks and the NdPr price is lower what does it say? Simply demand has evaporated. Now if any one does not believe auto section ICE cars is still the biggest user of PMs let them say what is and why. Both China and US auto sectors continued to drop in March. Everything I read says drop will be worse in US for both APRIL and MAY good chance June & July as well. The us producers including Toyota Honda Kei, BMW, MB and others with plants in US. They will not go back into production as restriction are lifted there is a huge oversupply of finished vehicles, WIP. and parts. Because of JiT manufacturing manufactures place orders well in advance with hard commitment so delivery occurs when it is needed. Many parts suppliers who buy the PM materiel are still shipping parts to manufactures. New orders will not be placed till long after sales pick up. I think China will not be as bad, less inventor surplus, but still a major drop from 2019. Right now China is a black hole with little info coming out. Then why are prices going up? Simply We know China's production cost are higher than Lynas. So China has been losing money at these prices. With lynas out of the picture it made total sense to cut back shipments to its non China customers. Big question when Lynas resumes will China ramp to limit Lynas market share? As we saw in January it takes a minimum of two weeks from the time of restart or volume ramp at Lynas for product to hit market. January they knew the date this time thy did not so maybe longer. So unlikely to see any impact from Lynas till June. If prices drop earlier than June one of two things may be happening. China is raising production to capture market share. Companies and speculators have inventory they do not want with Lynas coming on line. Either way i speculate that will be hard for Lynas to produce a lot more product until demand picks up and my guess that is 2021 at earliest. They produce more, price drops more little or negative change to revenue. Increase in cost. Less cash and profits. Economics 101


https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/car-sales-braked-in-march-will-sputter-more-in-april-analyst-forecasts/

Be care full on this one in sereal places they say less than expected. Expected was a decline of 80% less than expected is 55%
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/the-coronavirus-pandemic-isnt-hurting-us-auto-sales-as-much-as-feared-jd-power-says.html