Before I get my hopes up I think A little history is called for....

Before I get my hopes up I think A little history is called for.

NEXT Go back and listen to the 2017 AGM and all the promises made about NEXT. Then look at what was delivered. Today even AL admits they produce only about 6 KT NdPrO not the 7.2 She promised in 2017 AGM. Fact is only once have they produced Next rates of 1800 KT / Q, that was Q4 2023, 1864 Tons. In fact, they have only produce original name plate 1500 KT / Q for 3 consecutive Qs once. and only once has 4 Q running average broken 6 KT.
Not saying this time will not be different it could be. History does not support it.

KAL
Was suppose to be able to support Lamp, Texas and future expansion. Today we have no proof it can even support Lamp all by itself. It was suppose to be in full production almost 18 months ago. As far as I can tell it is still in early pilot. All 4 projects were suppose to be self funded and total AUD 500M. KAL alone is now over $800M.

Texas according to 2019 plan page 28 Texas was suppose to be in pilot production late 2022. Recently Ground breaking has been slipped 3 times. JMO Ground breaking is simplest step. If they do not do it very soon they will need to slip it again.

The question should be asked is this move to do this at lamp because there are more problems with Texas? JMO but they are probably converting a La or Ce separation unit. AL has been saying for years these do not pay for themselves and they only make La and Ce out of loyalty to their best customers. Several people above have asked why now? I agree this is a question that should be asked in Q4 CC

Can you explain why holding till 2026 makes any sense. Even the analysis are now saying the EPS will drop by about 50% with AR. I have never seen earnings drop like that not cause a significant drop in SP. Lyna's history of meeting original commitments is very bad as I pointed out above. REE prices have probably hit bottom but there is no indications that they will recover any time soon. They need to recover strongly in the next 3 months or SAR will be worse than AR. they would need to go over 600 RMB for NdPr so it is highly likely that SAR will be worse than the 2024 AR

If I held LYC I would hold for a few days hoping for a small pop from this news then sell. Then invest it in something liquid earning 5 % or better. Wait for solid news and an indication REE prices are going up and then reinvest. It is your choice. One of the things that increase my gains a lot, was ignoring my strong FOMO response when making decisions. I have missed some great opportunities being cautious, Like run up in Lynas, but I have avoided some realy big loses which were far more than the few gains I missed. I do track things I avoid. In the end all that counts is the bottom line in your portfolio. The reasons it change is not important neither is what you think will happen. What counts is change of bottom line divided by time. There are many good programs for tracking this that include all fees and dividends from your holdings.

Sincerely I wish you the BOL regardless of what you do. The level of performance helps everybody when everybody is making money.