Just doodling over my coffee.Major metrics for Lynas US plant...

Just doodling over my coffee.

Major metrics for Lynas US plant compared to Kalgoorlie operation inicate it is shaping up as a sizable operation.

Once Kalgoorlie is ramping up, they will likely start on Lynas US ops construction. While I find myself hard-pressed to understand the logic of a 1/10th scale LAMP-like operation, my concern is ameliorated by the fact they are not doing any C&L, and the fact that solvent exchange is highly scalable. Also the headcount appears in line.

In the most likely scenario, imho, the US ops will receive a portion of the MREC from KAL ops and ALL of the multi-element SEG/HREE generated by the LAMP.

It is possible (it seems likely to me) Lynas US ops will not completely separate LREEs pairs La/Ce or Nd/Pr as the LAMP does. They will be able to generate NdPr as input to magnet-making.

Given the 10,500 tpa NdPr that Japan has access to until 2038, Lynas has to increase production beyond that to provide Lynas US. The most likely scenario (it seems to me) is one in which construction of Lynas US occurs as KAL ops are ramping up to provide the 10,500tpa NdPr. US construction finalizes as they ramp KAL beyond that to 12K (that's their 2024 target; I'm thinking EOY), with a move to 14K tpa with preplanned bolt-ons at KAL et al already on the books.

The HREE separation at the Lynas US operation in TX will serve both Japanese and US markets.

From the presentation:





So if Lynas US is separating ~1,500 tpa NdPr (as per comments by Pol and Amanda) with 112 employees, how does that compare to Lynas LAMP?

LynasUS ==> 1500 tpa NdPr/ 115 employees = 13 tpa NdPr/employee.

Using LAMP nameplate, 10,500 tpa NdPr/1000 employees = 10.5 tpa NdPr/employee.


The only REAL reason to put any operation in the US is to satisfy the US-DOD's concern that the operation be secure, but I like to think they have made another batch of lemonade.